TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$313,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$260,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,270 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f9b…7be4backed Yes0c47,362$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6a…8683backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b31…5bd6backed Yes0c19,830$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2490…aa08backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd856…f532backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1208…79b4backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791f…060ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f1…34febacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf4…b882backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b95…f699backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6b…b245backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e4…dfc2backed Yes18c1,921$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.361566.7%10 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+683.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes14c1,347$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.65137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c1,033$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.46568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No79c1,002$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.691850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc384…ec9ebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes17c663.46$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.761533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x95cd…8efebacked Yes22c458.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x582f…9cd5backed Yes6c450.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes14c447.2$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.341414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeea7…924ebacked Yes23c437.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c4…164bbacked Yes19c436.33$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes15c424$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.811353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick30cpaid+152.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13b9…c60fbacked Yes13c386.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c339.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.781277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee6a…9f05backed Yes18c336.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+133%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes6c330$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes16c325.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52580%4 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick29cpaid+169.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Yes14c299.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+82.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a41…242abacked Yes21c296.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed Yes18c279.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes10c267.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.824723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa4…3409backed Yes19c267.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4a…c450backed Yes19c262.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b39…e046backed Yes19c262.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5621…b2efbacked Yes16c258.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc83d…5ca2backed Yes14c251.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12c…fae5backed Yes11c250$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5381…f932backed Yes18c238.85$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes18c237.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.953312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4377…cd61backed Yes8c236.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c211.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.45563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c3…75abbacked Yes14c207.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb773…b0e8backed Yes15c206.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes7c188.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.831369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.7wins+0.36per pick33cpaid+387.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes14c185.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1e…08f0backed Yes11c183.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e89…6430backed Yes28c179.9$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb268…b871backed Yes20c178.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…b91bbacked Yes17c164.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes32c157.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b9…a180backed Yes14c153.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0114…fbfabacked Yes17c153.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48bb…2dc2backed Yes17c150.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae0d…7df9backed Yes16c149.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes19c141.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.96166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Yes14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes10c139.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.91241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7893…c19fbacked Yes15c137.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7455…0432backed Yes15c137.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc789…7972backed Yes18c136.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c9…ca41backed Yes11c134.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No65c130$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.52544%11 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x848c…f458backed Yes16c128.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb081…6f50backed Yes16c121.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a89…9783backed Yes17c113.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes13c111.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ba…1969backed Yes16c110.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes17c108.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb559…5e7cbacked Yes28c107.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4c…7f93backed No46c105$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2428…5c18backed Yes54c105$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes12c104.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.091637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb35a…52d4backed Yes19c104.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9907…eec7backed Yes17c103.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c103.4$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b2b…58c9backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f3…3a31backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a0e…bac9backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes16c98.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.28966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+58.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9792…f790backed Yes13c98.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ee7…fb27backed Yes20c97.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbf…4953backed Yes11c91.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd421…191cbacked Yes16c91.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes15c90.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.593327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf0…e53bbacked Yes17c86.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2b…24ecbacked Yes17c81.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e30…71f7backed Yes18c81.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd819…04d5backed Yes16c81.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e4c…877fbacked Yes19c80.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x790e…0be2backed Yes17c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a2…3a33backed Yes19c79.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d2…cd9cbacked Yes20c79.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…4760backed Yes19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes20c76.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf50d…c2edbacked Yes15c67.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5f…0791backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.