Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8183a221622f2d5d2b46da86c80d55a61f43d35829589e03c1efae9d072638c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,720,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,940,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,720,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,089 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 7,994,398$8,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,194.4 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc381…a661backed No | 0c | 2,195,000$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…d324backed No | 1c | 1,941,939$27,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,125.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…740abacked Yes | 44c | 1,748,718$773,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974,867.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 34c | 1,323,741$447,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875,803.22 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed No | 4c | 1,013,171$39,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,091.35 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed No | 4c | 998,979$36,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,434.15 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…7d5dbacked No | 0c | 715,680$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe349…4291backed No | 0c | 626,950$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…35f5backed No | 0c | 422,770$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 8c | 404,036$31,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,073.41 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked No | 0c | 395,000$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.85 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…3683backed No | 0c | 390,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 76c | 382,592$292,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90,016.11 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…9cf1backed Yes | 78c | 359,615$280,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,717.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 3c | 343,459$9,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333,679.24 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked No | 70c | 317,006$222,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222,736.76 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 18c | 292,188$52,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239,409.35 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…233bbacked No | 0c | 290,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…b66fbacked No | 0c | 287,293$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +356.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 29c | 284,677$82,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,013.59 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 0c | 241,000$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.74 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…ca7cbacked No | 0c | 230,320$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…6d1fbacked No | 0c | 227,880$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…70e1backed No | 0c | 226,895$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…098bbacked No | 0c | 225,340$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edf…1011backed No | 11c | 224,600$25,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,723.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…b83fbacked No | 0c | 223,833$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…2c15backed No | 0c | 215,237$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 61c | 202,864$123,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,589.29 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021f…120dbacked No | 0c | 200,600$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.97 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd083…d678backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +477.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4c…472fbacked No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 7c | 195,978$13,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182,657.65 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 0c | 180,417$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.83 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 38c | 176,574$67,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,097.24 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb380…dae3backed No | 15c | 169,920$25,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,419.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 58c | 165,139$95,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,426.05 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed No | 36c | 158,847$57,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,496.74 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked No | 0c | 149,680$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 50c | 149,128$74,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,894.39 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 0c | 146,168$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 29c | 143,453$41,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101,778.92 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…8b02backed No | 0c | 141,110$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.11 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 61c | 140,342$86,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,078.45 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 60c | 120,467$72,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,728.79 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…cab4backed No | 1c | 119,190$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…f97cbacked No | 0c | 116,634$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked No | 7c | 112,716$7,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,609.13 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 56c | 112,545$63,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,106.63 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 56c | 108,496$61,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,265.65 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c6…6043backed No | 0c | 108,102$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 76c | 105,065$80,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,841.17 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…dd62backed No | 0c | 103,940$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd7…1a8dbacked No | 1c | 103,571$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed No | 1c | 101,275$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.16 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 50c | 100,531$50,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,836.6 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…ffdebacked No | 0c | 100,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…e4b3backed No | 0c | 100,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…ca48backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…80b9backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…c42bbacked No | 0c | 99,840$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 30c | 96,708$29,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,255.27 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…258dbacked No | 0c | 92,090$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 53c | 91,245$48,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,022.84 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 13c | 90,058$11,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,283.81 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 74c | 83,846$61,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,068.16 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b1…d75fbacked No | 0c | 82,880$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 66c | 82,316$54,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,236.37 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcead…b918backed No | 0c | 78,510$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 1c | 78,494$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,603.22 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 48c | 76,190$36,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,910.89 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…b42fbacked No | 0c | 68,333$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f1…48a3backed No | 0c | 65,347$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked No | 0c | 63,261$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…a5dfbacked No | 2c | 63,009$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 16c | 62,974$10,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,366.87 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…46aebacked No | 0c | 62,840$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed No | 0c | 62,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 62c | 61,292$38,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,006.22 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1077…c9f1backed No | 18c | 61,230$10,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,884.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 80c | 60,675$48,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,255.3 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 42c | 60,645$25,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,399.43 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…fb79backed No | 0c | 60,030$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…b751backed No | 0c | 60,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a00…b948backed No | 0c | 59,380$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 27c | 57,718$15,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,017.82 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 62c | 57,482$35,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,128.35 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…0f3cbacked No | 0c | 57,166$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 21cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 56,841$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.98 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…8378backed No | 0c | 56,381$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed No | 1c | 55,291$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.76 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…167ebacked No | 77c | 54,571$42,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,250.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 46c | 53,033$24,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,589.17 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 52,708$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.96 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…977fbacked No | 50c | 51,350$25,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,684.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…270ebacked No | 0c | 51,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked No | 19c | 50,625$9,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,414.57 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 62c | 50,182$31,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,349.26 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?this page
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.