Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fad2d024d0a82efa02dcef616a30739eb6cb5c5f088ec92a4ffbc7bda6f69b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,401,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,401,038 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 342 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4504…6f71backed Yes | 5c | 51,470$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…a537backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed Yes | 17c | 25,972$4,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,515.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…ad5bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,357$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 20,521$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.91 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 18,989$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.47 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 7c | 17,601$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.34 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 12c | 17,218$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.2 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…1c54backed Yes | 9c | 15,840$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e95…c57bbacked Yes | 1c | 15,206$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…8db4backed Yes | 0c | 13,540$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 12,549$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 11,687$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…041cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,231$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039f…a080backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52a…d8a6backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2082backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…0544backed Yes | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…3fd2backed Yes | 5c | 9,875$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1bc3backed Yes | 1c | 8,467$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 14c | 8,447$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.66 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 7,181$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.81 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 10c | 7,080$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.29 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,110$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…0e36backed Yes | 7c | 5,961$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 7c | 5,191$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.36 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 12c | 4,662$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.23 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…063fbacked Yes | 14c | 4,566$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 4,536$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.04 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…6aa4backed Yes | 3c | 4,520$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…2c8abacked Yes | 2c | 4,419$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…5134backed Yes | 10c | 4,176$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…de6bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,059$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…7fadbacked Yes | 12c | 4,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 3,917$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.67 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 15c | 3,671$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.75 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 10c | 3,400$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,118$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 3,025$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…d099backed Yes | 9c | 2,915$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed Yes | 1c | 2,864$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5e37backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda84…28cdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,401$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +1,090.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…bf82backed Yes | 1c | 2,347$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,315$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.71 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,300$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.99 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc364…7d31backed Yes | 2c | 2,293$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 3c | 2,263$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9c…908abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 13c | 1,908$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.71 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,807$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…ace2backed Yes | 3c | 1,699$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…00f5backed Yes | 18c | 1,690$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.25per pick | 27cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 15c | 1,654$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…2b10backed Yes | 13c | 1,557$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…fadcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,549$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…3becbacked Yes | 2c | 1,547$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…5840backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9577…e92cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 4c | 1,402$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,397$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 77c | 1,370$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,334$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb1…5e96backed No | 77c | 1,294$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.29 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…cb9cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,257$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a11…6ef0backed Yes | 6c | 1,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…307fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,248$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efd…e08ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,239$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…3dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,209$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…5e4ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,206$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.11 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c69…f2d9backed Yes | 15c | 1,177$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.43 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc2…e51bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,176$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,149$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…e4fdbacked Yes | 19c | 1,093$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…d6bebacked Yes | 18c | 1,091$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…36cfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,064$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb235…ede0backed Yes | 20c | 1,022$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…19abbacked Yes | 9c | 993.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…287abacked Yes | 5c | 961.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 959.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 12c | 921.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 919.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 8c | 900$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes | 4c | 899.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 23c | 885.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…7e98backed Yes | 6c | 874.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…6ab2backed Yes | 13c | 868.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…1c1cbacked Yes | 17c | 843.16$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 18c | 841.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 15c | 825.45$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8313…ff40backed Yes | 12c | 809.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b6…3153backed Yes | 37c | 805.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…97edbacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580c…6d83backed No | 79c | 799.28$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.45 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…37fabacked Yes | 13c | 785.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?this page
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.