Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6ddb7146f48a12dbf73456d654211b01d7493829932c31b7fe85d82120d338f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,780,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,152,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,780,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 70c | 267,287$186,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,955.29 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 35c | 184,962$65,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119,699.02 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…9cf1backed Yes | 76c | 116,868$88,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,029.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 75c | 114,820$85,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,885.7 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 41c | 111,504$45,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,049.42 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 24c | 101,771$24,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,187.11 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 72c | 91,628$65,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,770.74 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 69c | 86,511$59,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,058.5 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 65c | 72,352$46,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,813.97 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 55c | 69,140$38,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,847.01 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 39c | 67,350$25,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,994.94 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…3581backed No | 1c | 60,629$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 38c | 49,595$18,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,986.82 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 53c | 48,645$25,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,907.61 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed No | 65c | 48,113$31,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,255.24 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 66c | 46,458$30,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,875.52 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed No | 62c | 46,089$28,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,599.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…5439backed No | 78c | 40,685$31,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,791.38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.5wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…5f8ebacked No | 1c | 39,739$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed Yes | 72c | 37,861$27,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,596.36 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed No | 66c | 35,354$23,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 79c | 33,596$26,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,949.88 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 63c | 32,565$20,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,954.12 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked No | 15c | 32,478$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…2376backed No | 1c | 30,289$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…d0b1backed No | 42c | 29,135$12,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,169.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 61c | 29,008$17,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,175.41 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 73c | 28,774$21,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,692.28 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 79c | 28,125$22,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,775.38 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…788fbacked No | 1c | 28,065$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed No | 6c | 25,948$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.62 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…ec47backed No | 2c | 25,523$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +306.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…98c7backed No | 65c | 25,031$16,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,346.82 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 63c | 24,622$15,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,040.12 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…0b26backed No | 49c | 23,285$11,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,348.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 39c | 23,058$9,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,052.92 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 46c | 21,897$9,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,909.52 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…740abacked Yes | 75c | 21,765$16,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,399.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b5…1875backed No | 0c | 21,656$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked No | 71c | 21,579$15,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,245.72 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 77c | 21,497$16,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,026.54 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked Yes | 74c | 21,278$15,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,638.35 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7601…5136backed No | 12c | 21,245$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 76c | 20,853$15,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,762.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed No | 5c | 20,499$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 64c | 20,422$13,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,391.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed Yes | 67c | 20,265$13,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,692.4 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…7674backed No | 5c | 20,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…cf12backed No | 45c | 19,861$8,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,978.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 24c | 19,551$4,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,617.14 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 67c | 18,000$11,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,030 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 66c | 17,552$11,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000.48 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…3873backed No | 65c | 17,039$11,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,033 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 61c | 16,567$10,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,502.02 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…eaa9backed No | 66c | 15,707$10,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,433.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed No | 13c | 15,404$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…14ddbacked No | 1c | 15,390$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 53c | 14,903$7,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,058.38 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed No | 48c | 14,589$7,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,024.97 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 22c | 14,114$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.81 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed No | 11c | 14,110$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed No | 74c | 14,057$10,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,437.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…1146backed No | 0c | 13,810$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb386…74cdbacked No | 15c | 13,698$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +193.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13ec…a343backed No | 68c | 13,603$9,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,226.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 45c | 13,495$6,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,402.24 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…644fbacked No | 33c | 13,154$4,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,393.21 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 13,019$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked No | 74c | 13,000$9,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,589.98 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…0100backed No | 61c | 12,332$7,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,531.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -5.1wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 56c | 12,301$6,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,466.53 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…eecfbacked No | 77c | 12,000$9,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,209.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…6cc0backed Yes | 78c | 11,968$9,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.34 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +191%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…b870backed No | 24c | 11,709$2,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,810.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…56eabacked Yes | 37c | 11,500$4,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,219.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…b94abacked No | 31c | 11,233$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.1 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 35c | 11,054$3,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,909.64 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…3fd2backed No | 6c | 10,810$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 70c | 10,750$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,250 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 23c | 10,543$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,129.17 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 79c | 10,467$8,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,303.79 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…0929backed No | 68c | 10,321$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 67cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…7bccbacked Yes | 18c | 10,303$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,472.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +233.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb89…8803backed No | 29c | 10,200$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,225 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 16cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 33c | 10,000$3,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,746.22 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…5af5backed No | 3c | 9,964$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed No | 2c | 9,871$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.64 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +309.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…b4cebacked No | 71c | 9,853$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 76c | 9,622$7,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.61 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…bf8dbacked No | 59c | 9,327$5,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,475.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 18c | 9,319$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,685.76 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 65c | 9,283$6,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,272.22 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…b019backed Yes | 76c | 9,192$6,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,214.83 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +7.8wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…e4edbacked Yes | 72c | 9,058$6,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,536.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed No | 51c | 8,979$4,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,550.08 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…c6d5backed Yes | 20c | 8,685$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,907.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8472…aa71backed Yes | 17c | 8,567$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,069.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +472.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 71c | 8,417$5,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,459.33 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed No | 26c | 8,379$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?this page
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.