TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9030…cf12

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
329
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Serie A, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 54 out of 100; worst Tennis at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT12046.7%56 W · 64 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 120 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Knicks (-17.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$8.93
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.58
Trail Blazers vs. Nets: O/U 221.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.01
Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.53
Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.97
Spread: Hawks (-2.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.12
Magic vs. Hawksbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.56
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.33
Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.91
Trail Blazers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.39
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$47.58
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$20.65
Trail Blazers vs. 76ersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.06
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.86
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$35.19
Nuggets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+124.7%+$108.78
Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 244.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Spread: Celtics (-20.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$14.88
Hornets vs. Spursbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.96
Spread: Hawks (-10.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.6
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.68
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.92
Showing 25 of 120 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT4245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Wildcard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.9
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.2
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$66.5
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+72.3%+$214.05
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$297
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stagebacked G2 Ares · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$17.1
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.7
Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$19.2
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+83.3%+$81.8
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FOKUS (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group Bbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+59.7%+$18.7
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.9
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$62.4
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+97.2%+$83.8
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.56
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$204.3
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+75%+$187.39
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$107.92
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$107.45
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40.79
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$59.36
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+112.8%+$45.58
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+113.8%+$113.37
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$34.58
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$99.63
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+53.8%+$53.55
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT4047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Bluesbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.55
Kings vs. Islandersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$265.05
Penguins vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+64.6%+$161.33
Sharks vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.42
Blue Jackets vs. Panthersbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.92
Canadiens vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.48
Utah vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$138.76
Senators vs. Canucksbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+46.3%+$92.39
Utah vs. Blackhawksbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.98
Flames vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$112.32
Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.68
Hurricanes vs. Flamesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.71
Flyers vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$91.77
Canadiens vs. Kingsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+115.3%+$51.42
Rangers vs. Devilsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$97.11
Canadiens vs. Ducksbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40.9
Wild vs. Golden Knightsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+96.1%+$40.18
Blues vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$99.75
Hurricanes vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$47.15
Canucks vs. Blackhawksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+132.6%+$66.12
Avalanche vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$31.96
Panthers vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$36.92
Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+127.3%+$22.96
Bruins vs. Predatorsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$49.98
Lightning vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+177.8%+$117.76
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.99
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$87
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Côte d'Ivoire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.8
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$1,013.2
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$799.5
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$796Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$796.4
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$795Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$795.2
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+72.7%+$307.3
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$799Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$799
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)backed New Zealand · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$397.6
Spread: Belgium (-3.5)backed Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+100%+$600
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Uruguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$470.4
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$792
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$213.5
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+150%+$24
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)backed Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$105
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$182.4
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
All 18 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.98
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.44
Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$30.74
Burnley FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.44
Norwich City FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.91
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.7
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+61.3%+$17.1
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+49.3%+$16.5
Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.15
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+365.7%+$365.15
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24.7
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$55.2
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+212.5%+$148.92
All 15 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group Abacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$150.52
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$215.25
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$74.9
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffsbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+53.8%+$53.55
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Berlin International Gaming (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffsbacked Eintracht Spandau · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$200
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$199.5
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+53.8%+$107.45
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$46.66
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+2.5)backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffsbacked Nongshim Esports Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+194.1%+$224.4
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-51.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Tennis — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockxbacked Alexander Blockx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.6
Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatschbacked Anna Bondar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$212
Livesport Prague Open: Daria Snigur vs Lilli Taggerbacked Daria Snigur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$87
Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian Baezbacked Yannick Hanfmann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+85%+$252.7
Generali Open: Mariano Navone vs Quentin Halysbacked Mariano Navone · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Acostabacked Facundo Acosta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Estoril Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jaime Fariabacked Botic van de Zandschulp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Estoril Open: Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinezbacked Henrique Rocha · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.1
Estoril Open: Titouan Droguet vs Camilo Ugo Carabellibacked Titouan Droguet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$16.2
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$2.94
BNP Paribas Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardbacked Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$99.62
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Ligalast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-08-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.92
Girona FC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.65
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$122.36
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$237.79
Levante UD vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$461.1
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+132.6%+$51.87
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$55.08
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+244.8%+$29.11
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)backed Getafe CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+76.7%+$10.85
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Valorant — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-54.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+98%+$244.87
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$77.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+159.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$12.24
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikosbacked Panathinaikos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$44.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.