TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$715,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $715,259 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Nets50c197,391$98,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,595.3126253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Trail Blazers52c184,242$96,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,615.587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Nets48c110,000$52,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,80048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Nets48c100,000$48,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,999.9954539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Trail Blazers52c89,237$46,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,940.681,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Nets47c87,430$41,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,092.295154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Trail Blazers52c80,000$41,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,399.9943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Trail Blazers50c63,357$31,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,678.381,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Nets48c58,549$28,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,062.7929245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers51c34,795$17,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,208.949,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Trail Blazers50c27,819$13,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,909.521549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Nets48c18,000$8,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,600.31,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Trail Blazers50c14,925$7,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,462.6952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Trail Blazers52c12,308$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,907.6933447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Trail Blazers52c11,258$5,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,403.7323147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers52c11,220$5,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,386.74,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Trail Blazers53c11,000$5,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,17058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Trail Blazers53c10,116$5,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,726.8318749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers52c10,107$5,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,873.218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nets48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Nets48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Nets48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Trail Blazers52c8,960$4,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,276.6437747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Trail Blazers52c8,918$4,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,280.6417550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Trail Blazers53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7601,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nets47c7,214$3,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,381.674,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Trail Blazers53c5,220$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,453.414245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Trail Blazers50c5,069$2,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.312,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Trail Blazers53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3501,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Trail Blazers49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.6317349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Trail Blazers52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.9924252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Trail Blazers50c3,519$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.543,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers50c3,470$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7356,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Nets48c3,400$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63233945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Nets48c3,368$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.643729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Trail Blazers52c2,992$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.319952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Trail Blazers52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets49c2,288$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.654,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Trail Blazers49c2,229$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.072,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Nets48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9964944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Nets51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9687750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Nets52c1,957$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.3933146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Nets49c1,950$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.535744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers51c1,950$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.51,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets46c1,800$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8283,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Trail Blazers50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Nets51c1,452$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.4691050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Trail Blazers49c1,379$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.2945151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Trail Blazers52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57613857.2%79 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Nets48c1,190$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.9637842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Nets48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9924050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Nets48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Trail Blazers52c999.97$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9923938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets48c980.19$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.713,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Nets48c907.65$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.7543544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Trail Blazers53c903$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.411,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Trail Blazers53c891.61$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.772,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3542…24f0backed Nets48c885.42$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4253847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Trail Blazers51c804$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.8826034.6%90 W · 170 L-20.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Trail Blazers50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Nets47c783.98$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.4716338.7%63 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed Trail Blazers52c746.79$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.465349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Nets50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30023553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Nets51c597.04$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5611158.6%65 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Trail Blazers49c569.65$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.522,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Nets51c568.27$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.8224946.6%116 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Trail Blazers48c556.33$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.2917953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Nets48c549.98$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.9976250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Trail Blazers50c490.43$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.433,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Nets48c480$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.411451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Nets51c467.57$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4642845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Nets51c437.61$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.181,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets44c422.19$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.765,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Nets48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Trail Blazers48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.679245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Nets48c416.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf498…3d66backed Nets52c404.96$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911855.1%65 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Nets48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19215446.1%71 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Nets50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028751.9%149 W · 138 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Nets54c373.96$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20218055%99 W · 81 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78f1…e373backed Trail Blazers48c343.46$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.63360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Trail Blazers50c336.45$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.2357650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Trail Blazers51c324.95$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.161,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c52…5859backed Nets33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993026.7%8 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-47.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Nets49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7853945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Trail Blazers52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14421139.8%84 W · 127 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Nets48c291.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Nets48c263.59$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8451438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Trail Blazers50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Nets48c248.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6711642.2%49 W · 67 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Nets48c247.57$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.319441.5%39 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Trail Blazers52c246.88$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7581349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed Nets48c244.29$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.739841.8%41 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Nets51c234.63$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6642352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeef…5667backed Nets51c222.83$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11315253.3%81 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers50c220.12$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.983,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Trail Blazers53c216$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.025738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf10…691bbacked Nets51c215.26$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11013751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Trail Blazers56c213.95$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.112,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11a…09eebacked Nets51c211.76$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810656.6%60 W · 46 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.