TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,196 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17ff…d7afbacked Yes55c1,772$983 inLost-$982.72450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No44c657.78$288 inWon+$369.931,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No45c582.98$262 inWon+$320.645,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No46c445.96$206 inWon+$240.14,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No54c293$159 inWon+$134.131,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No53c208.97$110 inWon+$98.9797049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc574…b9dabacked Yes50c200.18$100 inLost-$1006033.3%20 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+59.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes48c200$96 inLost-$964042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No45c185.71$84 inWon+$101.282,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa55d…001ebacked Yes46c150.86$70 inLost-$704837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No46c149.91$69 inWon+$81.111,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba29…71e6backed Yes54c128.3$69 inLost-$69.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked Yes41c112.46$46 inLost-$45.7915651.9%81 W · 75 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No57c89.44$51 inWon+$38.5565762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7473…89eebacked Yes43c80$34 inLost-$34.44151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3f…ae90backed Yes53c60$32 inLost-$31.82437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6af…05c6backed Yes51c58.82$30 inLost-$307548%36 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No55c43.54$24 inWon+$19.7992058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No46c40.2$18 inWon+$21.711,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf577…160ebacked Yes44c31.95$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No46c30$14 inWon+$16.290357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No56c27.2$15 inWon+$11.9983158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No47c22$10 inWon+$11.6696956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No62c21.01$13 inWon+$8.0332866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.