NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2799b592153930a5b18b48ef6c3d94c498cf48f5d323225e5d9cb29d47f159a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $326,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,729 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 256,744$125,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130,955.88 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nets | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,000 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Nets | 51c | 75,996$38,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,874.51 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Nets | 52c | 50,000$26,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,000 | 483 | 43.7%211 W · 272 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 49,985$23,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,992.11 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e0…5052backed Nets | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,300 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets | 51c | 26,204$13,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,364.04 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Nets | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,120 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 51c | 7,513$3,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,830.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 3,752$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.98 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Nets | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.83 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 3,197$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.41 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nets | 51c | 2,556$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.61 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 53c | 2,024$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 2,014$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.42 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets | 51c | 1,756$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.42 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…4090backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,256$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.32 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,209$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.8 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,064$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.19 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Nets | 52c | 895.83$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.83 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Nets | 52c | 879$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.08 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…a912backed Nets | 52c | 879$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.08 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Nets | 51c | 843.14$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 331.12$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.18 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…db55backed Nets | 53c | 321$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.31 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 304.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.21 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Nets | 53c | 249.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Nets | 53c | 245.27$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Nets | 52c | 217.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 576 | 50%288 W · 288 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 188$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Nets | 52c | 130.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…e433backed Nets | 53c | 111.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…2eeebacked Nets | 53c | 110.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e6…24e6backed Nets | 53c | 109.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Nets | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Nets | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…642dbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e4…4bc7backed Nets | 52c | 94.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Nets | 51c | 83.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Nets | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked Nets | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Nets | 52c | 65.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc9…c447backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c52…5859backed Nets | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Nets | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Nets | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 188 | 53.7%101 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…cf12backed Nets | 53c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 48.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Nets | 53c | 48.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…ce56backed Nets | 53c | 46.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb706…c2adbacked Nets | 53c | 37.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 206 | 41.7%86 W · 120 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…3d34backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…c6afbacked Nets | 53c | 32.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Nets | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4480…8c0ebacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…cf99backed Nets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Nets | 53c | 26.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…f338backed Nets | 52c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 273 | 50.2%137 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Nets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
- Josh Minott: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Nolan Traoré: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-17.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-18.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-19.5)Nets won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-24.5)Nets won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Toumani Camara: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Trail Blazers vs. NetsTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nets: O/U 215.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.