TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,100 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Under52c98,694$51,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,321.148343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c47,634$22,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,788.749,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over48c19,985$9,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,358.954,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over48c9,028$4,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,653.11,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…8536backed Over48c5,802$2,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,017.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over48c4,577$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.152460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over48c4,384$2,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.682,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over48c3,489$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.43,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c2,480$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.154,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over48c2,323$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.9634851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over48c1,875$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9752,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over50c1,614$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8072,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over48c1,568$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.91,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Over48c1,458$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.3318448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Over48c752$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.0422154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over76c705.87$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.4165872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under20c698$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9252230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Over76c685.52$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7226337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Over80c600$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12016159.6%96 W · 65 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over47c593.5$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.752,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under35c572.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.123,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under29c557.16$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.862,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over76c533.68$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.753,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Under53c493.11$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.5243544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Under67c449.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002568%17 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over52c434.4$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.82,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under58c362.07$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21018242.9%78 W · 104 L-10.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under23c335.76$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9520837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Under52c330.65$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9476250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under52c311.39$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.733,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over76c220.81$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9776653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Under53c207.79$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5511642.2%49 W · 67 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed Under53c204.5$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.249841.8%41 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Under53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.859441.5%39 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005257.7%30 W · 22 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over48c199.36$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.521,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e76…95cdbacked Under27c181.85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.13145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over74c181.39$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.690357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over50c172.33$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1783158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x769c…fd65backed Under53c169.81$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over50c162.24$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1287744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under52c160$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7553945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…c413backed Under13c155.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…0822backed Under30c133.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402060%12 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under42c127.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1745452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under24c125.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.231,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Over75c120.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.238952.8%47 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2044backed Over49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.043548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5255533.5%186 W · 369 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Under46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.541833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under53c98.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6718853.7%101 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Under51c97.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2262844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9030…cf12backed Under52c97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9112046.7%56 W · 64 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e3…59cdbacked Under53c94.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502556%14 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Under53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015641.7%65 W · 91 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1779…eef2backed Under45c90.26$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9610936.7%40 W · 69 L+0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.687049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…ce56backed Under53c74.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5612044.2%53 W · 67 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Over55c73.95$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.283369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb2…eb78backed Over48c72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.443354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb8a…8775backed Under32c69.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.351580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Under52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020147.8%96 W · 105 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe523…c6afbacked Under53c52.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6315441.6%64 W · 90 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7c…db55backed Over49c51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.015042%21 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb706…c2adbacked Under53c43.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1120641.7%86 W · 120 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fc…7104backed Under52c43.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Under48c41.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8642153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over48c40.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.145460.4%274 W · 180 L+21.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeed2…ad97backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed Over42c31.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5765…43a3backed Over50c31.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.691010%1 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-80%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked Under56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Under50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4921…5238backed Over42c29.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.861533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc816…7a20backed Under53c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159552.6%50 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over49c28.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4352552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Over42c25.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.025733.3%19 W · 38 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x524f…bcbdbacked Under53c22.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.792433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0338…6562backed Under52c20.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114847.3%70 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f02…f85fbacked Over70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.052853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d4…089cbacked Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under57c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3937959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5e…f29fbacked Under53c19.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4770%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Over67c17.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9418052.2%94 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.