TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 113.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,907 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d4c…41c4backed Over50c571.96$286 inWon+$285.982070%14 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over53c377.56$200 inWon+$177.5640344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under47c331.72$155 inLost-$155.472,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc1e…8107backed Under50c146.75$73 inLost-$73.381315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-67.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfb96…34b9backed Under50c144.5$72 inLost-$72.251241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x023e…a3b9backed Under50c143.61$72 inLost-$71.811136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e0…3c1ebacked Under50c135.85$68 inLost-$67.93825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-50.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under53c113.96$60 inLost-$60.11,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under47c85.26$40 inLost-$40.074,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4168…a631backed Over53c80.72$43 inWon+$37.9412146.3%56 W · 65 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over54c59.26$32 inWon+$27.2621642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under48c29.99$14 inLost-$14.488057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.