NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9124f773ddb5f43eabb28337fe0b551182948cc824aee16845e0bfe1c665902
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,155 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 41c | 8,398$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,442.99 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…6d6bbacked Over | 59c | 6,000$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 58c | 3,821$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 41c | 1,155$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.64 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 1,050$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Over | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0540backed Over | 56c | 724.04$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.88 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 423.4$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.49 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Over | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 28c | 364.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 326.75$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 300.64$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 57c | 252.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 226.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Over | 57c | 142.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 43c | 135.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 101.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 60c | 95.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 38c | 88.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…7cefbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86f…da81backed Under | 43c | 83.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 46c | 77.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 72.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 16c | 70.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 48c | 60.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…dd09backed Under | 42c | 47.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 43c | 44.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Over | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 59c | 39.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 38c | 39.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c78…e56cbacked Over | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…23a9backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…095fbacked Under | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Over | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 201 | 40.3%81 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca24…a92abacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 42c | 24.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 57c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Bub Carrington: Points O/U 8.5No won
- De'Anthony Melton: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Pat Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Wizards won
- Trae Young: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Tre Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Warriors vs. WizardsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.