TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$442,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,158 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over53c195,138$103,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,787.2287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under47c175,705$82,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,258.964,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under46c57,216$26,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,147.0154539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over53c49,528$26,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,287.366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a0…9a09backed Over53c28,858$15,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,563.483560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Under47c25,000$11,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,6508839.8%35 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over55c15,843$8,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,203.119,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over51c10,145$5,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,971.032,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over53c9,434$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,433.921,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under41c6,186$2,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,531.262,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over55c5,382$2,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.74,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Under47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3503759.5%22 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under48c4,657$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.714,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa356…4a82backed Over50c4,511$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa68f…4a56backed Over50c4,010$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb7…3f4bbacked Over50c3,606$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Under47c3,333$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.5114753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under46c3,137$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.656,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over55c2,894$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.753,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under47c2,858$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.261,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ba…dad4backed Over50c2,812$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Over54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.7856453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Under46c2,519$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.926544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17513148.1%63 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6eb…75dcbacked Under49c2,466$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c00…a6aabacked Under49c2,458$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under47c2,455$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.953,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc5…d1f5backed Over51c2,455$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615c…b09dbacked Under50c2,415$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb12c…251ebacked Over51c2,366$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a60…6a31backed Under49c2,333$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b09…2dbbbacked Over51c2,236$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under48c2,230$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.472,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Under47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7402…3251backed Under50c2,121$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under47c2,100$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9871,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Under48c2,080$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.412850%64 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9601…a924backed Under50c2,066$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Over52c2,049$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.6611653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under49c2,025$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.1322643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x479b…6189backed Under50c2,001$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeda…b843backed Under50c1,822$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0abd…590abacked Over51c1,800$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under42c1,753$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.613,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7335…512abacked Under50c1,623$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c1,571$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.715,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bf…3659backed Under49c1,540$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe9…525fbacked Under50c1,477$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9649…5b0ebacked Under50c1,414$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over55c1,158$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.72,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under48c1,119$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.122,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under45c1,114$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.354443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Under47c1,100$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.988747.1%41 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over51c999.98$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.9953951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Under46c946.75$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.518447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed Over54c901$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under48c895.83$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43081349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under44c788.98$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.151,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Under48c760$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.819445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Under46c734.15$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.9718235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c710.59$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.822,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under37c707.5$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.343,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Under45c661.84$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020247.5%96 W · 106 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over69c660.95$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.488,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x960e…77d6backed Under47c582.98$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2743953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8322…b5fbbacked Under48c489.58$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Under48c480$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.423850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Over54c399.99$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.9977549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Over59c355.93$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.9318242.9%78 W · 104 L-10.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Over56c330.71$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.0422154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under48c319.75$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4840146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Under47c296$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1214145.4%64 W · 77 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9737…09c1backed Under47c295.99$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.114240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over75c292.19$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.041,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Over55c291.43$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8413554.1%73 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d27…676ebacked Over54c280$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7413954%75 W · 64 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over53c246.72$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7649249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over55c237.27$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0551438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over74c224.7$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2790357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Over59c219.98$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1422456.3%126 W · 98 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…0b37backed Under50c214$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1071020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-58.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under47c212.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x798e…4df3backed Under46c212.7$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.212147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa7…d4febacked Under45c210.94$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9210850.9%55 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cdb…9d70backed Under48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Under48c204.24$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4117643.2%76 W · 100 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under48c203.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.61,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under18c202.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2152230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.089159.3%54 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over54c191.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.521,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5729345.7%134 W · 159 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under49c176$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.85,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d4…578bbacked Under49c166$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Under17c164.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7626337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Under11c164.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7112227%33 W · 89 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under48c160.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5964844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06c2…022dbacked Under50c156.96$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.483053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4678…8f73backed Under49c155$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.