Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x749bd84e4b50bad3c208fde8c7ca41d9818df12ea616a3615cb7b2db9e8b78e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,096 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac75…1319backed No | 58c | 20,000$11,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,399.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 42c | 16,118$6,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,756.96 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed No | 58c | 12,000$6,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,040 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Yes | 6c | 10,458$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 42c | 10,263$4,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,323.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 4,026$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.2 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 57c | 2,763$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.39 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 42c | 2,600$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 19c | 1,612$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.7 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 1,585$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.77 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 42c | 1,429$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 41c | 1,278$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.98 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed No | 56c | 1,242$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.47 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 57c | 1,201$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.46 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 1,049$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 3c | 887$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 4c | 804.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 59c | 800$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 42c | 714$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 68c | 644.94$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.66 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 39c | 590.1$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.64 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 58c | 499.98$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 12c | 464.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Yes | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 44c | 407.69$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…cf12backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 39c | 299.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Yes | 41c | 280$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 10c | 266.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 44c | 264.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 42c | 253.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 40c | 245.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…d5a3backed Yes | 42c | 238.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Yes | 42c | 233.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 13c | 233.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked No | 59c | 191.69$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Yes | 43c | 189.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 180.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7123…59b9backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Yes | 43c | 127.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…2391backed Yes | 24c | 125.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 120.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Yes | 24c | 99.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…960bbacked Yes | 12c | 88.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 42c | 81.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…57a4backed Yes | 41c | 78.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 44c | 75.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 26c | 71.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 44c | 64.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed No | 60c | 63.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 44c | 60.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked No | 59c | 53.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…c634backed Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…25a5backed No | 74c | 49.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 72c | 45.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…1327backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…ade4backed Yes | 40c | 32.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…c9aabacked No | 59c | 31.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 59c | 29.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 41c | 29.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 25.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -7.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 43c | 25.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed No | 59c | 19.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.