Australian A League · resolved market
Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f2009c443bd52ed3b0076b58cf2ac0b2b29c59c6dbbc50f6523f363c0052ddf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,592 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 66c | 18,575$12,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,315.25 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 13,167$4,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,591.68 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 35c | 3,156$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.01 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 1,582$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.1 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 24c | 1,442$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 983.56$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.67 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 560.07$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.4 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 41c | 343.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.31 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked No | 66c | 300.08$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 31c | 269.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.57 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 35c | 171.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 170.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked Yes | 24c | 158.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 29c | 134.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 19c | 132.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 36c | 119.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 68c | 101$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 98.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Yes | 48c | 79.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 79.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 26c | 77.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0870…1e49backed Yes | 26c | 76.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 38c | 74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7683…d8e3backed Yes | 36c | 72.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…1363backed Yes | 27c | 71.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 35c | 70.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 36c | 63.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 20c | 51.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…c634backed Yes | 27c | 50.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked Yes | 26c | 49.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…5f1abacked Yes | 29c | 49.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…3415backed No | 73c | 48.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 64c | 47.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 40.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 28c | 38.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 65c | 36.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Yes | 33c | 35.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46e8…1391backed No | 76c | 29.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 78c | 21.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5768…a918backed Yes | 72c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked No | 76c | 17.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 79c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.