Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 126.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66901f47e1d5dd6f2c37c403091c13d33eb3e679b3c0c3008cdc1bc2bfd5969c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,205 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 52c | 4,335$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 3,116$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.26 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 624.51$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.99 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 47c | 624.51$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.99 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 53c | 425$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.25 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 57c | 260.9$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.71 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 51c | 213.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 21.2%51 W · 190 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +299%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 41c | 165.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 47c | 135.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 132.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 52c | 106$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 44c | 99.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 99.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 57c | 86.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 58c | 74.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…adf9backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 46c | 60.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 46.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 54c | 45.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…48cabacked Over | 53c | 42.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Over | 57c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…cf12backed Over | 54c | 18.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Under | 53c | 18.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 126.5this page
- Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Illinois State RedbirdsNorthern Iowa Panthers won
- Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 127.5Under won
- Spread: Northern Iowa Panthers (-1.5)Northern Iowa Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.