TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 244.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,624 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over51c36,001$18,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,701.771,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Under49c30,000$14,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,699.9812639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Over51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,80048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over50c16,376$8,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,134.491,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c13,334$6,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,523.939,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Under50c9,637$4,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,831.789733%32 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over50c8,035$4,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,983.394,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f8…f76bbacked Under49c5,752$2,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,818.48425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c5,346$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.223,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Under48c5,004$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.841,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Under49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Over52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b90…0880backed Over52c4,200$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c3…77a7backed Over51c4,030$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42f1…bebdbacked Over51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.574443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7682…6ec1backed Over51c3,601$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74c…dfb2backed Over51c3,501$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over50c3,374$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.982,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ae1…ffebbacked Over52c3,015$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ee…464ebacked Under48c2,991$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0770…6b97backed Under48c2,969$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5852…5558backed Over52c2,952$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb805…48c7backed Under48c2,938$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda21…e3aabacked Over52c2,927$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3746…88cbbacked Over52c2,912$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d0…743dbacked Under48c2,900$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3921070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under49c2,857$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc4…45f0backed Under48c2,846$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b5…6347backed Under48c2,823$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe658…c477backed Over51c2,808$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b20…0669backed Over52c2,765$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x291a…c87cbacked Over52c2,764$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0f…a5b2backed Over52c2,750$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7245…bfcabacked Under48c2,735$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ff…7006backed Over52c2,724$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97fd…d224backed Under48c2,705$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48fb…cc80backed Under48c2,694$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a3e…96cdbacked Under48c2,683$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8146…715dbacked Over52c2,659$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…795bbacked Over52c2,637$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea1…e2cbbacked Under48c2,558$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba8…93b6backed Under48c2,547$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99d0…f1f3backed Under48c2,536$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…9725backed Over52c2,502$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04e1…01f4backed Over52c2,418$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c85…6598backed Over51c2,266$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a7…b600backed Over51c2,265$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.85425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under49c2,217$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.973,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under50c2,093$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.51,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe560…a638backed Under49c2,085$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d2…17aabacked Under49c2,020$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005072%36 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+64.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under50c1,966$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.424,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d7…7339backed Under49c1,914$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under49c1,864$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.3447542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd6e…229abacked Under49c1,844$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd36…9282backed Under49c1,812$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd012…9e59backed Over51c1,788$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under50c1,719$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.272,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f9…2213backed Over51c1,699$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.51475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c0…94f6backed Under49c1,688$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe78d…d091backed Under49c1,622$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa762…1912backed Under49c1,590$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa95d…fb9bbacked Under49c1,535$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Over52c1,520$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.649852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73bc…db1fbacked Under49c1,505$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc7…0602backed Over51c1,504$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.189352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe82c…14fdbacked Over51c1,414$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.862100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under49c1,327$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e0…4659backed Under48c1,300$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Under51c1,200$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61216953.3%90 W · 79 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Under49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Over51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4905269.2%36 W · 16 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+32.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x84ac…a09bbacked Over52c944.44$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed45…3de8backed Over52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3847454.1%40 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over51c799.99$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39267252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over50c738$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3691,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Over51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29438740.3%156 W · 231 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3825…60febacked Under51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over23c565$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.0552052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over33c529.53$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.858,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25054549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c447.43$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.994,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over27c444.58$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.451,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c435.73$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.632,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Under72c418.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30032952.9%174 W · 155 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Under49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Under13c399.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130224.8%75 W · 227 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a84…0e54backed Over52c384.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6114248.6%69 W · 73 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under47c382.07$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.792,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under53c373.06$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.123,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Over74c340.2$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.971,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under56c311.6$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.872,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over74c298$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.362,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Over52c291$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6810448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over69c257.39$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.371,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Under48c248.85$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7526337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under43c244.64$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5853149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.