TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,692

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,692 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xece7…6979backed Under47c2,112$1,000 inLost-$1,00012147.1%57 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Over53c1,552$823 inWon+$729.4411653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eab…7e13backed Over54c1,100$594 inWon+$50614152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over55c652.75$361 inWon+$291.654,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6eb…5402backed Over56c534.14$300 inWon+$234.1411159.5%66 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under45c517.31$233 inLost-$232.794,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c470.36$219 inLost-$218.789,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Under48c379.58$182 inLost-$182.217850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Under44c375.2$165 inLost-$165.0922140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5302…0a6fbacked Over53c370$196 inWon+$173.911957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under47c335.98$158 inLost-$157.912,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Over54c300$162 inWon+$13842845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under53c200$106 inLost-$10677549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under47c138.3$65 inLost-$6555444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd71…6714backed Over56c107.14$60 inWon+$47.145166.7%34 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over52c80.05$42 inWon+$38.422,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over45c74.64$34 inWon+$40.781,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Under47c66.2$31 inLost-$31.1124841.9%104 W · 144 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under47c59$28 inLost-$27.7346447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8934…afb3backed Over56c55.96$31 inWon+$24.622958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over38c53.72$20 inWon+$33.573,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee82…1965backed Under48c52.08$25 inLost-$256665.2%43 W · 23 L+10.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+28.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Under45c29$13 inLost-$13.0523946.4%111 W · 128 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2d…cd74backed Over54c27.78$15 inWon+$12.7812364.2%79 W · 44 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over55c27.18$15 inWon+$12.2332450.3%163 W · 161 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Under44c24$11 inLost-$10.6332752.9%173 W · 154 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked Over54c19.35$10 inWon+$8.96850%34 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34dd…dbf8backed Over64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.631330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.