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NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 246.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,475 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Under54c24,912$13,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,449.991,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c15,588$7,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,444.19,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over45c6,507$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,562.14,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed Under70c5,207$3,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,642.831266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over48c4,492$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.971,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Under55c3,736$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0551353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over47c3,414$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.872,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea15…dcadbacked Under52c3,057$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfde4…74a8backed Under52c3,020$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x287b…b7bebacked Over48c2,971$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62bb…02fcbacked Over48c2,884$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad0…8d83backed Over48c2,858$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x602e…c30fbacked Under52c2,852$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x691b…be9abacked Over48c2,793$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb921…82b2backed Under52c2,755$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04cf…d2f7backed Over48c2,749$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14f4…d4c7backed Over48c2,738$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50fb…1947backed Over48c2,716$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ee…61dabacked Under52c2,704$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d10…3edabacked Under52c2,689$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9683…ef4ebacked Under52c2,543$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over32c2,209$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.918,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over46c1,890$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.731,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Under55c1,624$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89313547.4%64 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c6…9211backed Under55c1,118$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61514847.3%70 W · 78 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over38c1,084$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.8722140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over46c1,068$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.273,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over29c915.59$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.543,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b22…ddcabacked Under55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3190…93bbbacked Under56c857.6$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.241631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Over48c554.17$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.1732450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over46c464.64$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.143,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515e…3fb9backed Under52c440$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.81136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under56c278.57$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15536453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Under55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15072250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over46c260.93$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.641,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7b…9ab9backed Under77c259.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027462%170 W · 104 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over46c221$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.31,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6abc…bd1bbacked Over47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7714549%71 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Over46c210.52$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6822154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa950…d92ebacked Under43c209.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.291338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over52c189.2$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.571,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over44c184.83$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.512,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Under55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029554.6%161 W · 134 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x451f…7301backed Under55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007853.8%42 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Under55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038152.8%201 W · 180 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9df…1e41backed Under56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over52c164.34$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.553,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over26c164.05$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7983158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Under63c158.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003040%12 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under51c155.73$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over46c151.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.84,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over47c148.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.512,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under51c144.76$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.833,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over43c121.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.571,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Over57c121.05$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0537848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Under55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5538464.3%247 W · 137 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under54c92.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Under55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5069049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2886…9bb2backed Over50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4510945%49 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…2857backed Under52c89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked Under55c87.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Over47c78.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7343544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over47c69.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6892750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027846.8%130 W · 148 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.146248.4%30 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2741052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Under56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810844.4%48 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Over48c47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2310028%28 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b67…e889backed Under50c44.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2910951.4%56 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfc…8eb3backed Over46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4813947.5%66 W · 73 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over46c43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2278648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under48c40.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0614860.1%89 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6674…79f7backed Over48c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0dc…d9b6backed Under59c33.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked Over47c33.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.716850%34 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d2…a008backed Under61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012961.2%79 W · 50 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0881…356abacked Over39c30.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.581957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34dd…dbf8backed Over49c30.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.381330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Under55c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.215054%81 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa991…f266backed Under55c23.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over48c23.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.285,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over51c22.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.062,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb134…def6backed Under54c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1137959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1156454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd531…dfabbacked Under55c19.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6740%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.