NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c94f83debedb5c48e046d3ba48d9a580fb89850848c611e2592c14388a2f69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,005 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 6,539$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,046.61 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 54c | 4,054$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.73 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Over | 51c | 3,577$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.72 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 49c | 2,193$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.95 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 1,805$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.35 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 897.61$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 755.38$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 459.5$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.59 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 54c | 450$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 376.3$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.73 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 361$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 58c | 224.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 221.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 37c | 212.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 198.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 51c | 191.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa380…55e3backed Under | 49c | 153.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Under | 50c | 142.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 42c | 124.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 110.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 47c | 92.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 48c | 70.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 64.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Over | 48c | 54.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…cf66backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 43c | 49.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Under | 46c | 48.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 47c | 44.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 49c | 40.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 47c | 32.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…1472backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa950…d92ebacked Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 53c | 25.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 46c | 24.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 49c | 23.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 57c | 20.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Over | 51c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 137 | 49.6%68 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…1798backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b0…591fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9361backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 243.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Lakers won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. LakersLakers won
- Nuggets vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Nuggets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 244.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 245.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 246.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.