TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Clippersof Spurs, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,009,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,009,619 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Spurs49c486,871$237,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237,766.8772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Clippers51c384,964$196,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188,632.3387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Clippers53c122,493$64,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,825.713847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Clippers52c77,086$39,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,372.2643148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Spurs49c55,474$26,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,910.3434851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Clippers27c41,297$11,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,160.0540446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Clippers52c26,053$13,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,505.5960351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Spurs48c25,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Spurs73c23,047$16,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,824.5266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…7df7backed Spurs0c21,868$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.35742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs63c21,257$13,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,372.818,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Spurs49c20,000$9,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,8507759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Clippers52c20,000$10,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,599.9648343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Clippers51c19,289$9,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,434.714,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x934e…e7c0backed Spurs48c17,299$8,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,2651844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs61c15,279$9,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,362.8285742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Spurs50c14,910$7,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,504.191,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Spurs47c12,225$5,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,745.7217550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Spurs47c11,511$5,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,409.9737747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Clippers52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8008153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Clippers53c9,308$4,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,374.761,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Clippers46c9,278$4,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,005.0526337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Spurs49c8,224$4,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,029.744252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Spurs47c7,899$3,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,744.961,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs48c7,531$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,580.456,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Spurs47c7,018$3,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,318.719445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Clippers53c6,776$3,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,184.722,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Clippers49c6,290$3,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,184.971,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Spurs48c6,042$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90012151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs51c5,882$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Spurs47c5,164$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,42718749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Spurs47c4,590$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,157.1487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs48c4,590$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.399,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Spurs48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Clippers52c4,000$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.1714448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Clippers51c3,921$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.291,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Spurs42c3,770$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.4859140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Clippers52c3,619$1,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.174,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Spurs48c3,165$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51924847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Clippers54c3,107$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.821546.5%100 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Clippers47c2,835$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.21,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Clippers54c2,791$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.6117041.8%71 W · 99 L-11.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Spurs43c2,479$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.883,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Clippers51c2,372$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.031,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Clippers47c2,334$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.043,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Clippers45c2,244$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.723,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Clippers55c2,192$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.3948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Spurs48c2,120$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.617162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Spurs47c2,120$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.3822143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Spurs47c2,096$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98517349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Spurs48c2,079$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99832450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Clippers64c2,025$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.5720963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Clippers53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Spurs64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.9914766%97 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Clippers31c1,958$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.492,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs48c1,862$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.394,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Clippers55c1,831$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.236764.2%43 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Spurs59c1,713$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.672,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83df…362fbacked Clippers54c1,708$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.442045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Clippers50c1,702$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.8736351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Spurs46c1,623$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.482,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Spurs48c1,548$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.0145151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Spurs48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Spurs47c1,461$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.538148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Clippers54c1,430$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.261241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c57…47aabacked Clippers54c1,396$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.17850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Clippers50c1,344$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.92,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Clippers52c1,309$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.321,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Clippers54c1,294$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.2126043.8%114 W · 146 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Spurs38c1,282$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.1328245.4%128 W · 154 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Clippers49c1,226$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.441,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b3…49f8backed Clippers49c1,128$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.411833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Clippers50c1,098$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.591,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Spurs54c1,063$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.051,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Clippers54c1,059$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.3111642.2%49 W · 67 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b05…7b7dbacked Clippers54c1,059$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.143756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf606…440abacked Clippers51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4908754%47 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Spurs48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1690…8c4dbacked Spurs74c970$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.87064.3%45 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Spurs50c950$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47547856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Clippers54c930.03$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.0820049%98 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Clippers50c916.99$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.55,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Clippers46c897.5$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.823,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Clippers41c890.76$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.7621142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked Clippers52c877.37$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.855044%22 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Spurs48c853$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.4454443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Clippers52c847.11$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.6120352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Clippers51c838.74$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.7481349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Spurs48c833.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40028554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3542…24f0backed Clippers53c801.89$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.893847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Spurs49c798.08$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.9158450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Clippers54c794.46$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.1722148%106 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb10…bf4bbacked Clippers52c773.97$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Clippers54c768.26$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.764839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88bc…fc0dbacked Clippers54c749.05$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.562665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d27…676ebacked Spurs48c728$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.4413954%75 W · 64 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6680…0535backed Clippers54c717.46$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.396544.6%29 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Spurs42c708.14$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9917551.4%90 W · 85 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Spurs47c674.81$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.2625840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Clippers52c674$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.5231354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.