TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Uruguayof Spain, Uruguay
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,339,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,322,182

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,339,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 903 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Uruguay66c365,662$240,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,331.774,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Uruguay68c271,506$184,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,925.4474752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed Spain40c150,000$60,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,999.9415552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9a6…627bbacked Uruguay68c146,314$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,313.8711645.7%53 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Spain30c118,773$36,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,042.992,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Uruguay62c109,470$67,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,540.3477152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Spain33c104,654$34,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,446.612,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spain29c104,152$30,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,655.471,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Spain34c81,583$27,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,796.5523942.3%101 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Spain32c79,705$25,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,657.442,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Uruguay64c75,645$48,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,530.9815456.5%87 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Spain32c74,030$23,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,642.4618738%71 W · 116 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Uruguay68c60,875$41,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,781.0828162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9340…ae1dbacked Spain34c56,194$18,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,883.067416.2%12 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Uruguay69c53,000$36,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,429.9617949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Spain31c45,734$14,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,177.525844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Spain32c40,000$12,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,80014553.8%78 W · 67 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Uruguay68c38,623$26,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,352.7351032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Spain31c37,960$11,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,767.621333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Uruguay66c35,825$23,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,108.493,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spain32c32,876$10,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,403.228,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Spain33c30,303$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00064446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Spain32c28,741$9,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,197.1221029%61 W · 149 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Uruguay67c23,240$15,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,679.2521836.2%79 W · 139 L-19.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Uruguay65c22,946$14,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,007.081,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a2…353abacked Spain35c17,143$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0004841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Spain30c17,000$5,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,03010128.7%29 W · 72 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Uruguay66c16,841$11,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,709.141,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e1…8be4backed Spain32c15,262$4,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,883.874233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Uruguay71c14,981$10,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,344.619839.8%39 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Spain34c14,706$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00018740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Uruguay70c14,102$9,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,230.553448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Spain27c13,696$3,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,687.162,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7042…c72bbacked Spain31c12,903$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0007147.9%34 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Uruguay66c11,261$7,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,858.381,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Spain33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30038026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Spain30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00019345.1%87 W · 106 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Spain31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10012536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Spain40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.985349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Spain31c9,677$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00026320.5%54 W · 209 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Uruguay68c8,888$6,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.1519038.9%74 W · 116 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Spain34c8,837$3,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,006.081,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Uruguay67c8,710$5,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,874.4274447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d06…f79dbacked Spain35c8,663$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00012536.8%46 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Uruguay71c8,451$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.710457.7%60 W · 44 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Spain26c8,438$2,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.061,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Uruguay69c8,000$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,48013742.3%58 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Uruguay70c8,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40036250.8%184 W · 178 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Spain33c7,777$2,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.4132029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e0…32dfbacked Spain33c7,576$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50017345.1%78 W · 95 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ba…afeabacked Spain34c7,353$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50015337.3%57 W · 96 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…fefcbacked Spain30c6,667$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008333.7%28 W · 55 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Spain31c6,299$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.5511122.5%25 W · 86 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Spain32c6,250$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00025019.6%49 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…044abacked Spain38c6,112$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.5613554.8%74 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Uruguay70c6,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80016258.6%95 W · 67 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Uruguay70c6,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.9922451.3%115 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7434…2ff4backed Spain31c5,672$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.957835.9%28 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Uruguay67c5,575$3,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.131,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Uruguay66c5,573$3,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.291,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b7…21fbbacked Spain27c5,333$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.893030%9 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Spain39c5,128$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00016957.4%97 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Spain40c5,025$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005729.8%17 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5e…fd91backed Spain39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9504431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x663b…2308backed Spain34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-72.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Spain34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7006737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed Spain33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6509823.5%23 W · 75 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1fd…948ebacked Spain35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75017416.1%28 W · 146 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Spain37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.9958049.1%285 W · 295 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Spain32c5,000$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.9926447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf531…121cbacked Spain32c4,375$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40017944.1%79 W · 100 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf01…859ebacked Spain34c4,153$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.977842.3%33 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Spain32c4,041$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.5353629.9%160 W · 376 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Spain33c4,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32043248.4%209 W · 223 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Uruguay60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60011657.8%67 W · 49 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Uruguay69c3,989$2,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.536953.6%37 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Spain30c3,859$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.7320844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8867…518cbacked Spain32c3,453$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.964841.7%20 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Spain31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011640.5%47 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c4…09cbbacked Spain31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009823.5%23 W · 75 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed Spain31c3,216$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.8220333.5%68 W · 135 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Uruguay70c3,200$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96037850.5%191 W · 187 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcfb…efc0backed Spain33c3,030$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007129.6%21 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Spain20c3,004$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.054,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb748…dbddbacked Spain33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9905339.6%21 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b0…dd47backed Spain35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0506129.5%18 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab1c…aaddbacked Spain34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0205628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Uruguay67c3,000$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.8447144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Uruguay69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.994341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Spain29c2,954$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.612,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Spain34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014428.5%41 W · 103 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Uruguay70c2,800$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84038351.4%197 W · 186 L-1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc769…8316backed Spain37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007751.9%40 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52d8…100dbacked Spain31c2,658$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82432739.1%128 W · 199 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Spain20c2,526$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.242,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Uruguay67c2,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82547643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Spain40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00046319.9%92 W · 371 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c45…8652backed Spain33c2,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.981442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+227.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Spain31c2,471$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.8950243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Uruguay69c2,470$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.3412657.1%72 W · 54 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.