Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x786b556c654497ba26ae7d1b9605eb25146994bd5d0a3db02c0e3d46e5062a76

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $271,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $273,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,040 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3e59…2a66backed Over	7c	12,159$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.68	1,063	31.7%337 W · 726 L	-33.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Over	9c	8,536$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.05	981	34.8%341 W · 640 L	-7.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Over	13c	5,555$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.15	320	29.4%94 W · 226 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	5c	5,019$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.97	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	10c	4,994$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.68	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6f…d024backed Over	11c	4,350$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.53	774	33.1%256 W · 518 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over	5c	3,728$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.52	163	25.8%42 W · 121 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Over	9c	3,150$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.5	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Over	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over	12c	2,434$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	894	43.4%388 W · 506 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	7c	2,296$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.65	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Over	9c	2,093$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.87	585	30.9%181 W · 404 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Over	5c	1,990$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.58	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Over	9c	1,937$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.34	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x293b…7a58backed Over	12c	1,898$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.81	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	10c	1,850$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.29	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	7c	1,519$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.86	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d3c…104bbacked Over	15c	1,210$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.12	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Over	6c	1,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	331	20.8%69 W · 262 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed Over	5c	943.85$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.67	383	33.9%130 W · 253 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ac…4781backed Over	11c	886.24$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.49	525	22.5%118 W · 407 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47c5…46c3backed Over	12c	846.71$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	193	29%56 W · 137 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6281…cb9cbacked Over	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	8c	710.7$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.31	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	7c	678.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.49	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over	13c	653$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.89	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7df…5094backed Over	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed Over	8c	516$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.87	462	30.1%139 W · 323 L	-13.8wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee0e…38bbbacked Over	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	235	29.8%70 W · 165 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84e…b520backed Over	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	113	37.2%42 W · 71 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebb…8220backed Over	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	282	24.1%68 W · 214 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Over	10c	385.18$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.52	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	438	19.2%84 W · 354 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over	12c	349.96$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.73	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Over	8c	321.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.47	456	27.9%127 W · 329 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0367…e7fbbacked Over	12c	300.42$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over	13c	293.69$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.18	146	12.3%18 W · 128 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0409…a2febacked Over	13c	289.54$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.64	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x280e…b409backed Over	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	128	18%23 W · 105 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd96b…46dfbacked Over	14c	257.14$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f5d…7590backed Over	13c	245.54$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	46	32.6%15 W · 31 L	+4.1wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb65e…de52backed Over	12c	241.33$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.96	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Over	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a2…b58ebacked Over	12c	222.92$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.75	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019a…264dbacked Over	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	120	35%42 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	10c	220$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	823	40.9%337 W · 486 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3da…0088backed Over	14c	214.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	138	26.8%37 W · 101 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf219…76bbbacked Over	10c	210$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86dc…5ed2backed Over	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-32%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06be…8a46backed Over	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	99	19.2%19 W · 80 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd8…f260backed Over	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	379	19.5%74 W · 305 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5797…c232backed Over	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bb1…daf7backed Over	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	188	21.8%41 W · 147 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c3…ac23backed Over	10c	199.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	957	39.5%378 W · 579 L	-18.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6b…3e58backed Over	10c	196$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	109	11%12 W · 97 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	13c	194$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	308	36%111 W · 197 L	-17.3wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over	10c	191.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…42fabacked Over	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Over	13c	145.51$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	732	34.6%253 W · 479 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over	10c	140.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	494	41.5%205 W · 289 L	+27.7wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40d8…9fdabacked Over	10c	138.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	257	41.6%107 W · 150 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Over	11c	136.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.03	462	43.5%201 W · 261 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	10c	128.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a51…f305backed Over	10c	116.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	188	27.7%52 W · 136 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6500backed Over	12c	108.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	95	45.3%43 W · 52 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Over	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	120	13.3%16 W · 104 L	-6.8wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Over	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ac…cd94backed Over	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	285	44.6%127 W · 158 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2738…ac3cbacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa4…7092backed Over	11c	94.08$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5this page
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Uruguay won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Uruguay won
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Uruguay won
Spread: Spain (-4.5)Uruguay won
Spread: Spain (-5.5)Uruguay won
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)Spain won
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)Spain won
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5Over won
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 6.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5Over won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 1.5Under won
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event