TailMyPicks
Market

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,413

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,413 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes55c42,001$22,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,088.0916045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes53c14,580$7,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,785.173,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes37c8,586$3,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,409.977757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No41c7,290$2,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,969.282,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f0…60dabacked Yes74c4,302$3,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.35944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes62c3,761$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.3310641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No63c3,424$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,157.3548658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No29c3,159$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.4553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No41c2,918$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.471,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No34c2,070$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.241,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d8…31cfbacked No24c1,765$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.182166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No37c1,760$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.6840744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Yes42c1,374$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.026550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes48c680.71$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.713429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No47c633.36$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.587328.8%21 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed No21c619.18$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.343043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes55c574.19$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.930647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked No36c553.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.278050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked No21c470.62$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.834643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked No75c444$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3334337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8bd…ec2dbacked Yes80c375.43$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No43c368.14$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8324541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes36c364.19$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.53342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x660d…56acbacked Yes33c363.64$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.649043.3%39 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yes42c356.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.7816046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No66c304.39$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x744e…3224backed Yes16c299.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.991442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.28per pick15cpaid+183.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee02…8132backed Yes16c299.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.28per pick14cpaid+188.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes35c287.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8817652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6795…9518backed Yes70c264.29$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed No39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006245.2%28 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf24…15ecbacked No30c214.29$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.295056%28 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2057…14eabacked Yes74c209.18$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No60c205.63$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed No63c173.47$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.295052%26 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed No22c173.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.132343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c168.6$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.622221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x686e…3415backed No44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+70.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb3c…b4f5backed No44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.222245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No22c109.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Yes33c105.06$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.397145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes19c102$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5216060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed No42c98.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.653140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed No63c90.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.052657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Yes33c89.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.868252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Yes79c88.61$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.612665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes60c88.4$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4539558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed Yes31c80.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.57911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No22c77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.948541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed No77c75.34$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed No67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6330…1444backed No35c72.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e5…5228backed Yes80c63.76$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked No45c62.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.97650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.78665.1%56 W · 30 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes35c57.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3420540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes32c57.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8214734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yes33c55.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5714756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yes67c54.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9127554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079c…a211backed Yes27c53.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.14875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x008d…b839backed Yes45c51.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.311250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked No36c50.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.022665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbba…e651backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6404…2a20backed No38c48.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.261414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-72.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d7d…b015backed Yes40c47.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…ade4backed No39c46.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.891346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No32c41.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2428822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x201d…2e13backed Yes62c37.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.031573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes51c36.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.099646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Yes34c36.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2818353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb226…4469backed No70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed Yes34c35.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.293759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20a2…dc15backed Yes55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f4…e01abacked No63c34.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe748…bc49backed Yes58c33.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.984339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9030…cf12backed Yes60c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a6…44edbacked Yes34c31.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.657755.8%43 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.252552%13 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No37c31.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3538151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.531844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa172…83c8backed Yes60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4057…159bbacked No71c26.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa616…203ebacked Yes42c26.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.22580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+49.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes58c25.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8712064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a0c…3843backed Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Yes59c25.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.521369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14b2…e75fbacked Yes78c24.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.361070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No68c22.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.576470.3%45 W · 19 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b4d…7f1dbacked Yes79c21.75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x680d…05eabacked No74c20.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x023d…23acbacked Yes70c17.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b67…e889backed Yes67c17.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.642842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.