Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3e3b05629a861cf008373d2797e52931c0adac3bb298ae65079f880daa984b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,058 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 3,382$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed No | 61c | 2,063$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.79 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 73c | 1,015$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.1 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 821.46$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.77 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 785.23$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.08 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 28c | 780.6$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.27 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 632.55$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 562.59$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.9 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 34c | 328.86$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.53 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 26c | 320.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 27c | 294$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 69c | 238.15$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 33c | 238.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 28c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 12c | 102.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 68c | 102$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 21c | 96.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 84.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 28c | 59.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 26c | 52.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 29c | 41.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 78c | 40.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 40.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…3b7fbacked No | 74c | 24.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…79bcbacked No | 64c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.