Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb53c75fb25082ef4d1cccedb0e0d95105d153dfc1b6dce8ea2135607290c2b95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,847 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8f3…9576backed Yes | 41c | 2,490$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 64c | 951.04$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.36 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Yes | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 59c | 500.39$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.16 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 497.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked No | 67c | 364.24$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 60c | 332.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 27c | 325.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 38c | 299.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 22c | 220.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 32c | 199$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 13c | 195.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 41c | 195$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 169.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 60c | 98.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 40c | 78.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 40c | 76.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Yes | 37c | 66.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 39c | 66.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 33c | 60.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 30c | 55.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed No | 66c | 45.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 39c | 35.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 35.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.