TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIA Esportsof FURIA Esports, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$627,207

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $627,207 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked FURIA Esports66c148,320$98,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,304.7955955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Sentinels2c87,864$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.413775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Sentinels34c50,764$17,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,259.822065%13 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked FURIA Esports42c24,493$10,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,143.3566437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed FURIA Esports64c22,750$14,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,190.061,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Sentinels36c18,712$6,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,736.341,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Sentinels29c17,907$5,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,155.0839749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked FURIA Esports69c14,483$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,482.561421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Sentinels23c12,003$2,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.327343.8%32 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Sentinels46c10,157$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,674.7626144.1%115 W · 146 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x834d…29ecbacked Sentinels0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sentinels22c9,928$2,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.9725923.2%60 W · 199 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Sentinels0c9,350$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.035833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sentinels28c9,040$2,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,556.813,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Sentinels34c7,777$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.1831153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Sentinels57c6,000$3,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.9443442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sentinels36c5,768$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.541,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked FURIA Esports43c5,640$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,21537245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Sentinels56c5,555$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,110.781,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed FURIA Esports55c5,203$2,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.7734837.4%130 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb00a…c58cbacked Sentinels34c5,201$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7ea…bbb3backed Sentinels44c5,027$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.026328.6%18 W · 45 L-11.1wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Sentinels54c4,703$2,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,516.271,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Sentinels33c4,550$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51250848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Sentinels49c4,497$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.318458.3%49 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sentinels14c4,326$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.181,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc72b…c108backed Sentinels34c4,074$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Sentinels52c3,995$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.1727636.2%100 W · 176 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Sentinels56c3,804$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.091,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Sentinels30c3,464$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.7653640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Sentinels57c3,344$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.8230247%142 W · 160 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sentinels37c3,332$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.662,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03df…1299backed Sentinels3c3,200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9714626%38 W · 108 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75d9…6e84backed FURIA Esports46c3,060$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.311553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Sentinels34c2,956$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00552848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…be5dbacked Sentinels17c2,871$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500560%3 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick20cpaid+192.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Sentinels43c2,680$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.9515359.5%91 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sentinels55c2,450$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.232,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x72a9…5225backed FURIA Esports43c2,368$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.478739.1%34 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Sentinels13c2,290$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9160053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FURIA Esports78c2,227$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.291,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked FURIA Esports43c2,168$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.8370456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Sentinels48c2,100$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0156149.2%30 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed FURIA Esports44c2,006$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.2676953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Sentinels57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14042050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Sentinels55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed Sentinels35c1,971$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.6921028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed FURIA Esports70c1,900$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.9946263.9%295 W · 167 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Sentinels24c1,865$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Sentinels57c1,800$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02615545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd138…3140backed Sentinels50c1,748$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8676566.2%43 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c90…cd7bbacked Sentinels3c1,656$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.282138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sentinels35c1,552$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.5199338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked FURIA Esports44c1,448$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.7817839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25a4…2694backed FURIA Esports48c1,426$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.515263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Sentinels23c1,419$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.2617325.4%44 W · 129 L-19.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Sentinels34c1,384$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.681,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Sentinels70c1,383$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.0550569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00f5…7b42backed Sentinels16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sentinels56c1,248$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.38360.2%50 W · 33 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked FURIA Esports45c1,203$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.8226245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed FURIA Esports43c1,200$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68444047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Sentinels52c1,199$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.694252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x045d…185dbacked Sentinels45c1,189$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53863458.4%370 W · 264 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed FURIA Esports49c1,129$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.711,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Sentinels26c1,079$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.661,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Sentinels31c1,022$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.7145344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Sentinels32c1,001$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.8410844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12b…5a89backed Sentinels34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3404261.9%26 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Sentinels36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36082554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70c…41d5backed Sentinels44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44017633.5%59 W · 117 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Sentinels32c999.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Sentinels56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9913946%64 W · 75 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Sentinels25c985.21$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.611,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Sentinels35c952$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.143947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Sentinels35c913.99$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.975942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sentinels56c899.82$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.871,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Sentinels33c842$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0311141.4%46 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Sentinels39c835.97$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.651,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed84…f638backed Sentinels62c810$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.21735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked FURIA Esports40c803.66$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4835450%27 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FURIA Esports40c799$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.092,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Sentinels20c795$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2523547.7%112 W · 123 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Sentinels55c792$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.5269756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Sentinels31c791$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.3930545.2%138 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Sentinels55c749.13$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.022429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Sentinels68c733.69$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50083560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked FURIA Esports44c731.82$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.8219244.3%85 W · 107 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Sentinels34c725.59$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.732345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x511a…68bebacked Sentinels3c699.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216045%27 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed FURIA Esports43c690.03$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.3219844.9%89 W · 109 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5243…d41abacked Sentinels46c685.51$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.33933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f12…0d85backed Sentinels36c680.95$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.541145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed FURIA Esports69c658.52$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2794134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked Sentinels56c640$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.428837.5%108 W · 180 L-16.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Sentinels31c628.19$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.122234.7%77 W · 145 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd5…8f67backed Sentinels37c628.06$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23319251%98 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Sentinels33c615.87$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.982,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40b3…9ef3backed Sentinels58c609.26$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.372330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Sentinels25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15048143.2%208 W · 273 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.