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Lol · resolved market

LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIA Esportsof FURIA Esports, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$399,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,704 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked Sentinels41c20,858$8,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,465.71,30445.2%589 W · 715 L+50.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed FURIA Esports57c19,796$11,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,428.1425446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ea…bbb3backed Sentinels46c16,099$7,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,345.46328.6%18 W · 45 L-11.1wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed FURIA Esports54c14,937$8,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,868.131,20754%652 W · 555 L+27.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sentinels60c14,853$8,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,873.392,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Sentinels43c14,371$6,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,189.926144.1%115 W · 146 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked FURIA Esports40c12,559$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,559.2366437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Sentinels43c7,615$3,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,306.146149.2%30 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed FURIA Esports52c5,905$3,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,837.821,60153.7%859 W · 742 L+55.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Sentinels1c5,555$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.773775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Sentinels49c5,339$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.9328361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Sentinels14c5,318$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.9331428.7%90 W · 224 L+15.1wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Sentinels50c5,100$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,564.982,02158.1%1,174 W · 847 L+86.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Sentinels47c5,090$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.771,82039.2%714 W · 1,106 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked FURIA Esports50c5,088$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.341,27137.6%478 W · 793 L+33.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Sentinels51c4,706$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.995937.3%22 W · 37 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Sentinels44c4,250$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.621,60742.4%681 W · 926 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FURIA Esports61c4,165$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.763,18233.9%1,079 W · 2,103 L-151.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Sentinels48c4,094$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.231,33153.2%708 W · 623 L+36.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked FURIA Esports54c4,009$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.21963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed FURIA Esports60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60050770%355 W · 152 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Sentinels52c3,999$2,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.241,01242.5%430 W · 582 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked FURIA Esports61c3,975$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.8553640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed FURIA Esports63c3,442$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.346664.2%299 W · 167 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e23…761dbacked Sentinels50c3,381$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.3620537.6%77 W · 128 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Sentinels46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.9944047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Sentinels27c2,991$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80118451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f2f…552cbacked FURIA Esports65c2,979$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.1816349.7%81 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed FURIA Esports69c2,756$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.291,47361.4%904 W · 569 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed FURIA Esports71c2,711$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.9148553.4%259 W · 226 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed FURIA Esports51c2,622$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.261,07547.1%506 W · 569 L+3.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FURIA Esports27c2,594$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.3676330.4%232 W · 531 L-19.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed FURIA Esports53c2,246$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.8410044%44 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FURIA Esports58c2,091$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.332,91538.5%1,122 W · 1,793 L-120.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Sentinels4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8023915.9%38 W · 201 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+53.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Sentinels49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98063746.5%296 W · 341 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f91dbacked FURIA Esports55c1,890$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9176…0468backed Sentinels77c1,784$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.913569.6%94 W · 41 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Sentinels55c1,728$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.4157947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sentinels34c1,717$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.541,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sentinels48c1,685$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.292,83941.4%1,175 W · 1,664 L-14.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Sentinels49c1,562$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.0338454.2%208 W · 176 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed FURIA Esports51c1,519$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.7671249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed FURIA Esports53c1,449$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.581,52850.5%772 W · 756 L+3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa422…d0f9backed FURIA Esports60c1,430$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.076462.5%40 W · 24 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed FURIA Esports53c1,414$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.581,31355.8%733 W · 580 L+43.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked FURIA Esports61c1,400$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5521,01048.1%486 W · 524 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Sentinels45c1,281$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.331723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-57%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed FURIA Esports49c1,273$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.1125560.8%155 W · 100 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd359…6007backed Sentinels78c1,213$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9402240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Sentinels50c1,201$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.81,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39bb…9e51backed Sentinels47c1,200$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56418149.2%89 W · 92 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed FURIA Esports51c1,200$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5881,45357.3%833 W · 620 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Sentinels48c1,188$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.2475942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed Sentinels53c1,174$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.7521028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed FURIA Esports55c1,162$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.1343947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed Sentinels48c1,110$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53520454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fdd…d385backed Sentinels50c1,040$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.136262.9%39 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Sentinels48c1,036$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.111,14043.3%494 W · 646 L+3.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ba…e3f3backed Sentinels41c1,013$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.356451.6%33 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed FURIA Esports57c1,000$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.486556.9%37 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed FURIA Esports55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45039749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Sentinels45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45023751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed FURIA Esports46c971.4$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.1299338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc935…2579backed Sentinels68c956.64$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.731566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Sentinels40c918$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.61,02155.8%570 W · 451 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa22b…c241backed Sentinels41c897.97$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.922166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed FURIA Esports48c868.97$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4509748.5%47 W · 50 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa57d…0670backed Sentinels36c813.46$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.611631%36 W · 80 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Sentinels37c813.39$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked FURIA Esports57c752$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.4645344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked FURIA Esports52c719$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.921,22354.4%665 W · 558 L+51.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07e4…116abacked FURIA Esports45c671.55$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.154744.7%21 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked Sentinels46c669.26$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.34875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed FURIA Esports54c664.21$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.6739447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Sentinels43c657.73$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.651,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed FURIA Esports56c652$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.3310844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Sentinels48c624.94$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2993959%23 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked FURIA Esports54c622.2$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.3719150.8%97 W · 94 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…1ee8backed Sentinels48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28812133.1%40 W · 81 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed FURIA Esports55c600$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27042148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Sentinels12c599.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6911316.8%19 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+65.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a8f…6353backed FURIA Esports62c573.56$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.779938.4%38 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f5…7b42backed Sentinels38c546.15$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2104445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked FURIA Esports43c545.86$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.5363751.8%330 W · 307 L+38.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed FURIA Esports76c542.6$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.136260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Sentinels38c528.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20041945.1%189 W · 230 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Sentinels40c525.97$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.161,54362.7%967 W · 576 L+159.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed FURIA Esports37c500$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31794134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed FURIA Esports48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26037039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked FURIA Esports42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29050848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed FURIA Esports53c496.82$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.845618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Sentinels36c491.86$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9643138.1%164 W · 267 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb734…fc38backed FURIA Esports60c491.05$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.427568%51 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f05…575ebacked Sentinels50c480.47$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.622245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b82…a340backed FURIA Esports42c479.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.183138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf755…8e37backed Sentinels52c472.83$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.36855.9%38 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Sentinels72c470$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.087051.4%36 W · 34 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Sentinels50c443.01$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7854944.4%244 W · 305 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed Sentinels38c440$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.244042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.