TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,122,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,890,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,122,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 8,420 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes54c575,173$313,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261,961.2563835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6e6…389dbacked Yes50c274,677$136,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,380.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf9…c81bbacked No0c200,216$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d95…9270backed No18c162,995$28,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,812.96742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc258…d3f5backed No24c140,529$33,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,048.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes66c105,356$69,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,103.535123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes69c82,200$56,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,390.736835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc146…223cbacked No0c82,170$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…0988backed Yes60c67,836$40,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,4133056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes41c54,740$22,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,543.8311720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes67c52,607$35,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,102.61633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0869…3569backed Yes34c51,087$17,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,841.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5655…852fbacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c5…a97dbacked No0c48,515$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked No59c44,565$26,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,408.1911554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf582…55b2backed No0c44,373$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-42.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes40c43,269$17,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,953.592733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd4…84ddbacked No73c40,747$29,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,761.621471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa96c…a59cbacked No22c40,705$8,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,991.8560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked No56c38,002$21,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,273.34050%20 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe262…4097backed No47c36,931$17,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,316.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb683…70f1backed No0c35,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x247f…6749backed Yes44c34,459$15,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,181.41580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed No67c34,120$22,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,745.582152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x186c…187cbacked No70c32,594$22,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,699.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x845e…f10bbacked No70c31,512$22,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,144.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a1…9dcebacked No22c30,508$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8002321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No22c30,005$6,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,467.362540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes48c29,766$14,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,423.882619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9789…c374backed Yes71c29,373$20,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,581.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed No39c29,184$11,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,518.62475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e6…1ea4backed Yes23c27,953$6,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,485.951030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes72c27,899$20,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,828.7875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No48c27,163$13,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,023.214050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb35e…0867backed Yes67c25,950$17,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,535.671435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf58…cdcbbacked Yes37c25,532$9,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,182.45633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes42c23,545$9,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,546.491822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+298.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7073…35ffbacked No16c22,425$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,494.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No38c21,707$8,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,259.432634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedb1…187dbacked Yes37c21,686$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,685.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4b…8aa4backed No71c21,545$15,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,220.262259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes41c21,371$8,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,591.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed No25c20,000$5,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,019.932536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db6…2824backed No64c19,098$12,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,233.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ee…932cbacked Yes46c18,959$8,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,179.29944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39eb…94dfbacked No55c18,920$10,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,445.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5342…d243backed Yes41c18,145$7,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,685.292425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes40c18,141$7,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,945.888919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aed…69b8backed Yes40c16,836$6,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,055.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No64c16,724$10,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,684.8313117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked No28c16,497$4,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,592.3811316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes41c16,484$6,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,763.951833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No31c16,405$5,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,074.6614337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19a…8545backed No25c16,197$4,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,027.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b03…93fbbacked Yes51c16,124$8,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,954.134100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+104%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87f4…9ed0backed No50c16,036$8,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,052.583531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82ff…f0c4backed No78c15,746$12,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,288.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed No69c15,626$10,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,714.473582.9%29 W · 6 L+6.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+29.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked No70c15,000$10,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,487.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768b…9c01backed Yes23c13,801$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,600.66837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+159.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed No20c13,014$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,577.176518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes80c12,500$9,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,511.5112025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4f…7944backed No1c12,275$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No50c12,223$6,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,122.837163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes39c12,084$4,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,392.6312259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No63c11,863$7,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,442.253447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cee…22ffbacked No52c11,365$5,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,910.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6835…f97abacked Yes71c11,200$7,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,236.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6586…79c7backed No60c10,999$6,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,569.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes41c10,745$4,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,300.262937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked No46c10,443$4,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,831.1913038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0126…dafbbacked No0c10,014$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7127…6a60backed No58c10,000$5,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,791.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1596…b021backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4cc…9a45backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed No6c10,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d0…efacbacked No62c10,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,199.99825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ab…0a28backed No7c9,883$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No52c9,880$5,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,133.6928113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes26c9,715$2,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,180.314019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe580…a13fbacked Yes38c9,445$3,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,811.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad26…589cbacked Yes42c9,330$3,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,407.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes51c9,208$4,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,509.8458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb50c…215bbacked Yes38c9,108$3,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,609.57825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc8…327cbacked Yes53c9,077$4,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,295.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadd7…77a6backed No0c9,043$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b1…b470backed No0c9,002$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes45c9,000$4,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,977.42319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Yes30c8,981$2,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,294.781118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed No50c8,915$4,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,416.321353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4be…1300backed Yes41c8,210$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,859.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d96…4941backed Yes27c8,057$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,921.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+88.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb2…b265backed Yes59c7,976$4,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.482045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No68c7,930$5,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,402.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b14…d0b1backed Yes50c7,793$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,873.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0838…63b1backed Yes31c7,744$2,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,360.741040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…b78ebacked Yes69c7,671$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,390.82665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd628…43c1backed No27c7,500$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e8…c707backed No47c7,467$3,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,538.534015%6 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed Yes57c7,043$4,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,026.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.