TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,735,132
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,647,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,735,132 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes1c402,515$4,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,093.13339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+122.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes0c246,736$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.97430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes2c202,473$3,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,561.9163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6faf…4581backed Yes2c173,522$3,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,138.870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c130,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001001%1 W · 99 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-96.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes2c57,502$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.89320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c49,995$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50300%0 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes2c42,523$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes2c41,255$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.635123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e8…c707backed Yes1c26,179$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.414015%6 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44fb…4ababacked Yes4c25,091$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe034…1a93backed Yes2c24,923$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes2c23,032$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.9511316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Yes0c22,982$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.95229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes2c21,254$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3753923.1%9 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+103.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa94e…24e0backed Yes4c21,000$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes2c17,278$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.6187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes4c17,177$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.635726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3af9…3737backed Yes0c16,350$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.75130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c16,100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6320%0 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c15,301$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.7513117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c15,072$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.881693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8493…e006backed Yes0c15,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes2c14,691$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.031422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f7…df24backed Yes1c14,257$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c14,248$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.69590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c13,909$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.734163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe82…6611backed Yes2c13,746$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.890%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c13,366$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.736785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf77b…26d6backed Yes1c13,151$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.37120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed Yes0c12,930$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.62620%0 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c12,020$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.11490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c11,905$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c11,687$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.38234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes2c11,314$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.413998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c11,099$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75dc…239dbacked Yes2c10,871$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.811822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dae…9627backed Yes1c10,812$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-89.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes1c10,641$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.54449.1%4 W · 40 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c10,248$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.181333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c10,084$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…fc73backed Yes2c10,001$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.294912.2%6 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41e5…da8fbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c8,091$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.942581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked Yes1c8,075$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.03200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1cb…8de0backed Yes1c7,811$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9faa…3776backed Yes1c7,790$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes1c7,453$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+129.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8368…b02dbacked Yes0c7,434$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.71812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-80.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes2c6,919$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes1c6,841$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.58320%0 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x462c…ce90backed Yes2c6,788$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes2c6,722$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.28147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-91.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4006…f9debacked Yes1c6,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2955…b736backed Yes3c6,639$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes2c6,434$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.252683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e7…a700backed Yes1c6,406$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.17812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9e…e528backed Yes1c6,089$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b2…897bbacked Yes2c6,075$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5849…a99ebacked Yes0c6,025$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.07150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes1c6,020$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.63825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ea…ba8fbacked Yes1c5,649$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0886…b3a6backed Yes2c5,424$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3861…ce14backed Yes1c5,414$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df8…a073backed Yes5c5,363$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6d…887dbacked Yes2c5,338$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c5,209$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.37185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc209…fc5ebacked Yes2c5,134$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes1c5,132$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.842425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d71…b885backed Yes1c5,079$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ae…b810backed Yes2c5,034$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.14250%0 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9851…1320backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40220%0 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be4…4b2ebacked Yes1c4,944$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f64…52d2backed Yes3c4,778$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.65190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4739…5c49backed Yes2c4,603$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes2c4,571$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.91861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf629…57e3backed Yes1c4,540$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49290%0 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be0…049bbacked Yes2c4,524$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes1c4,349$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.241792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5579…d71bbacked Yes2c4,328$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes1c4,300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30200%0 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1fd…0bf7backed Yes2c4,291$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c4,213$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.63985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd609…40f4backed Yes1c4,176$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.76496.1%3 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2379…b85dbacked Yes2c4,146$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c4,099$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.051373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62d…68c7backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x804b…a979backed Yes1c3,862$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c3,819$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.71590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4680…ce04backed Yes3c3,710$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked Yes0c3,533$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes3c3,417$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.62913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…ecf7backed Yes0c3,407$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1657…e510backed Yes1c3,343$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.