Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfe3a23bc19c63cfa45e401248d99a40f048440c5084bba90047c96f9bda0266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $691,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $783,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $691,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 29,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 25,114$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 1c | 22,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…46e5backed Yes | 1c | 20,612$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8368…b02dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 1c | 13,533$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10af…94ccbacked Yes | 1c | 11,016$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c31…b166backed Yes | 1c | 10,190$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…03acbacked Yes | 1c | 10,140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 8,322$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…01b8backed Yes | 1c | 7,494$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…f74dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,942$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,172$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…3bcbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,774$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 5,352$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6952…30f3backed Yes | 1c | 5,143$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…f8d1backed Yes | 1c | 5,063$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…179dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,990$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7136…9e0bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x887c…e21fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,999$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300e…5051backed Yes | 1c | 3,066$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…6b46backed Yes | 0c | 2,822$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,793$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,645$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…d7debacked Yes | 1c | 2,641$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…71e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,583$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…3921backed Yes | 1c | 2,429$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…8c11backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,123$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…6ab2backed Yes | 1c | 2,071$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…4958backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…adf9backed Yes | 1c | 1,681$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d2…b3f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…62aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,406$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa932…79a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.