Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11e001ec706945b1971eafbe14c229b2ea231abeff92f569ad69598b03c3e8a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,895,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,979,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,895,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes | 0c | 194,448$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 61,612$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.86 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…4581backed Yes | 3c | 55,650$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 2c | 50,400$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.63 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 48,628$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…ffaabacked Yes | 1c | 40,629$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 29,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 28,520$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe034…1a93backed Yes | 1c | 24,873$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 22,940$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 21,990$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,064$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 16,609$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…52d2backed Yes | 1c | 16,365$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 13,332$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…09a3backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aae…319cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,671$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…2db7backed Yes | 1c | 10,109$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…3d3bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,243$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…08afbacked Yes | 1c | 8,969$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…759abacked Yes | 1c | 8,960$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…b736backed Yes | 1c | 8,429$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 7,760$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,670$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 1c | 6,973$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…e40cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,842$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 6,018$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x560b…85d7backed Yes | 0c | 5,625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…ee07backed Yes | 1c | 5,559$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,303$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe93…a2f3backed Yes | 1c | 5,025$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,731$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf999…2849backed Yes | 1c | 4,700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 4,498$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…f084backed Yes | 1c | 4,494$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…4958backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…afa9backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceeb…2951backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,564$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 1c | 3,425$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 3,335$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…d300backed Yes | 1c | 3,317$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,296$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 1c | 3,135$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a0…669ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,122$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -47%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 3,045$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…42e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…a59cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,988$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,867$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d4…decfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,757$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…739bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…57e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…4e0ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,205$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,902$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…8a7bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dd…bbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,825$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…2c36backed Yes | 1c | 1,690$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…0974backed Yes | 1c | 1,684$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaad…bb54backed Yes | 1c | 1,371$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c5…36d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…2d19backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…d5d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed6e…8399backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6088…27b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 999.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…9550backed Yes | 2c | 673.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.