Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c2732df1abb45a936b57318d77645f7cfbd2c27dcd3f5ab9e7ab77601dd6254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,708,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,878,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,708,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x658b…01b8backed Yes | 0c | 87,225$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.13 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…bb85backed Yes | 1c | 75,850$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 54,345$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…09abbacked Yes | 1c | 37,162$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 1c | 34,724$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.93 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 2c | 32,726$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…46e5backed Yes | 2c | 30,952$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.08 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 24,756$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…4159backed Yes | 1c | 20,643$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 1c | 19,530$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.88 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8368…b02dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,499$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 16,492$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 15,725$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…42e1backed Yes | 1c | 14,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd3…6198backed Yes | 0c | 13,860$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…e006backed Yes | 1c | 13,661$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 12,041$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 1c | 11,455$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,298$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…46d1backed Yes | 1c | 10,960$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,333$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…da8fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 1c | 7,372$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff8…274dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,116$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…1867backed Yes | 2c | 6,300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737a…05e0backed Yes | 1c | 6,031$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,855$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…5885backed Yes | 2c | 5,538$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.65 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 5,423$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cc…ff07backed Yes | 1c | 5,075$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…b8b5backed Yes | 1c | 5,055$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 4,937$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,360$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…6f81backed Yes | 1c | 4,335$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…134dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,302$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,205$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,556$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…3bcbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 1c | 3,288$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 3,033$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,681$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…8ad2backed Yes | 1c | 2,596$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd996…2ababacked Yes | 2c | 2,251$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…d964backed Yes | 1c | 2,088$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,875$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,811$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…818fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,533$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 1c | 1,505$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6952…30f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,446$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…6ab2backed Yes | 1c | 1,167$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…d7debacked Yes | 1c | 1,009$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ace…dab4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…efd5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…f33dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…8c11backed Yes | 1c | 999.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4393…128bbacked Yes | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…62aebacked Yes | 1c | 787.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…d300backed Yes | 1c | 682.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…c244backed Yes | 2c | 475.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.