TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,676,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,158,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,676,221 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44fb…4ababacked Yes3c132,810$3,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,630.3140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c130,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c97,374$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.14590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c91,647$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.99306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes2c87,938$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.3163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6faf…4581backed Yes1c84,120$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.0570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes0c77,137$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.39430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe034…1a93backed Yes2c46,042$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c0…ffaabacked Yes1c40,390$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.9230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes1c33,524$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.21320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f64…52d2backed Yes1c33,041$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.22190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c29,999$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes1c28,000$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32235123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b03…17dcbacked Yes2c27,786$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes2c26,793$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.1432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c26,322$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.472290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f7…382bbacked Yes3c23,926$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x553a…177fbacked Yes1c18,802$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed Yes0c18,193$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.65620%0 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd36…e20ebacked Yes1c18,134$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b62…daccbacked Yes1c17,143$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.041127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb83f…c056backed Yes1c16,202$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aae…319cbacked Yes4c14,183$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+79.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7205…e1d6backed Yes1c13,387$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes1c13,248$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.921422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes1c13,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5250%0 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c12,165$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.476785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5e…37a2backed Yes1c11,992$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4290%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c11,943$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.91333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2955…b736backed Yes1c11,256$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.17296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa98…cd18backed Yes1c10,937$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d66…a0c0backed Yes1c10,766$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc22…3e94backed Yes1c10,688$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc908…b6b6backed Yes1c10,688$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf73…6b87backed Yes1c10,184$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb46…c248backed Yes0c10,140$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d7…3d3bbacked Yes2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes1c9,452$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.15726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes1c8,836$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70200%0 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c8,244$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.71185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf527…476abacked Yes1c7,748$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c7,283$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.563998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0886…b3a6backed Yes1c7,155$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2abd…0b08backed Yes1c6,959$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-56.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes1c6,600$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.433511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes1c6,547$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6411316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b8…5c6fbacked Yes1c6,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d63…3aa7backed Yes1c6,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf77b…26d6backed Yes1c5,981$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.27120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c5,821$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.512922.1%6 W · 286 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6af9…da88backed Yes1c5,800$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x399b…f2bebacked Yes1c5,800$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aae…d469backed Yes1c5,566$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fc…b2d4backed Yes0c5,333$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes2c5,202$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.13861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78e6…ba80backed Yes1c5,200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a96…c691backed Yes2c5,148$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d5…f44bbacked Yes1c5,100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ace…a383backed Yes2c5,044$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c2…7827backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e60…db60backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8728…e2c6backed Yes2c4,904$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3933.2%3 W · 90 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e0…c9dabacked Yes1c4,809$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e2…0040backed Yes2c4,750$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+66.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c4,744$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.082581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce0c…9c24backed Yes1c4,677$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes1c4,662$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ee…2c4ebacked Yes3c4,660$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes1c4,522$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.932683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d56…5970backed Yes1c4,500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…0988backed Yes1c4,419$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.463056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked Yes1c4,323$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbad…c86ebacked Yes1c4,240$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.46911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18b…0f98backed Yes2c4,188$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes2c4,173$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6483…3f18backed Yes1c4,038$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.88875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+41.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes1c4,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90e7…f74dbacked Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4680…ce04backed Yes2c4,000$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2411…ada7backed Yes3c3,985$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e51…b23cbacked Yes3c3,863$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91b…e40cbacked Yes2c3,700$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a0…669ebacked Yes1c3,556$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick16cpaid-47%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe67…d964backed Yes1c3,530$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435e…3bd4backed Yes1c3,455$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes1c3,320$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c3,305$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.081693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a4…faafbacked Yes1c3,300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac6a…57d1backed Yes1c3,112$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.06326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc6…75bfbacked Yes1c3,085$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c3,076$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.271970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes1c3,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d1…bc6ebacked Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ed…3579backed Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a62…08afbacked Yes1c2,768$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b9…0863backed Yes1c2,679$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20180%0 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,646$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.07985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x212a…dbe8backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick2cpaid+105.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f70…e2babacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.