TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8b62…dacc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$3,567Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$4,728.72
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogsbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+203%+$33,500
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Texas A&M Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked Missouri Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,923Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,923.3
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.92
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcatsbacked Villanova Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$460
Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Wright State Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,794Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,793.62
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcatsbacked Santa Clara Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raidersbacked Akron Zips · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Idaho Vandals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Howard Bison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13,630Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$7,370
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthersbacked Lehigh Mountain Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$4,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,800
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhornsbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,186Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,185.77
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrieversbacked UMBC Retrievers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,178.45
All 15 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.92
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.04
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$104.91
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$130.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$809.79
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$764Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+35.1%+$268.51
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$175.65
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$548.98
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,640Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+105.1%+$1,723.14
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,679.99
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+266.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+633.7%+$2,815.68
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$4,710Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$4,710.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$623Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$622.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$39.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,560Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,560
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.