Token Launches · resolved market
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x169b0433d0a55dcd2181e63445108d5bc774da0eed4976ba842fd9aa7478158c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,833,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,833,430 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd022…6461backed Yes | 18c | 113,400$20,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,187.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…122bbacked No | 71c | 75,251$53,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,601.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…f0a2backed No | 46c | 57,300$26,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,942 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…17b6backed Yes | 41c | 44,216$17,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,911.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed Yes | 34c | 32,063$10,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,937.8 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…a26fbacked Yes | 17c | 30,000$5,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,098.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6b…7d5cbacked Yes | 54c | 29,100$15,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,714 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf3…1412backed Yes | 54c | 28,200$15,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,228 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed No | 57c | 27,302$15,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,764.02 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 65c | 19,508$12,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,853.63 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…cc4ebacked Yes | 41c | 16,956$6,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,884.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 45c | 16,951$7,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,407.03 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 24c | 15,565$3,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,764.62 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 46c | 15,300$7,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,265.74 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 67c | 14,074$9,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,645.28 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 45c | 13,143$5,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,172.27 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 38c | 12,719$4,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,833.4 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 79c | 12,164$9,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,591.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636e…579abacked Yes | 16c | 10,517$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 43c | 10,171$4,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,776.02 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed Yes | 5c | 9,983$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.14 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…5310backed Yes | 47c | 9,755$4,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,580.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 45c | 9,711$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,380.1 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c76…d2f5backed No | 53c | 9,392$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,393.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…a7f2backed Yes | 38c | 8,750$3,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,342.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…c67abacked Yes | 33c | 8,715$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,853.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7796…5da7backed Yes | 0c | 8,255$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e6…1d3bbacked No | 70c | 8,201$5,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,424.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e1…97efbacked No | 61c | 8,053$4,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,179.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…8100backed Yes | 40c | 7,491$2,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,980.77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449a…68a4backed Yes | 22c | 7,298$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…91edbacked No | 46c | 7,225$3,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,896.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 46c | 7,013$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,762.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…3315backed No | 51c | 6,579$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,253.54 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…9755backed Yes | 34c | 6,568$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…c3c4backed No | 71c | 5,698$4,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 36c | 5,626$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,580.48 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 65c | 5,500$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.84 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 5,367$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.05 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…bd36backed No | 76c | 5,332$4,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…5133backed No | 46c | 5,262$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,841.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 28c | 5,197$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.34 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…5350backed No | 37c | 5,085$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,183.87 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 48c | 5,000$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,390 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…edc3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a0…776abacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 47c | 4,895$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,609.37 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 22c | 4,776$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.71 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…74d5backed Yes | 35c | 4,717$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…75a7backed Yes | 40c | 4,678$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 59c | 4,453$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.62 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed No | 57c | 4,411$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.01 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…e56fbacked Yes | 41c | 4,380$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.72 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 65c | 4,326$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.83 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6e…c213backed Yes | 48c | 4,203$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…42ccbacked Yes | 53c | 4,137$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x691c…e0aabacked Yes | 39c | 4,007$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.52 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 35c | 4,002$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…e5e9backed Yes | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…e2c5backed Yes | 58c | 3,866$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…dcdfbacked No | 72c | 3,735$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 47c | 3,700$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.46 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…8b4fbacked Yes | 41c | 3,659$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 53c | 3,612$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.03 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…415fbacked Yes | 56c | 3,596$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed No | 76c | 3,500$2,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…6180backed Yes | 44c | 3,500$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 48c | 3,450$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.59 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…eb07backed Yes | 35c | 3,375$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…3ec2backed Yes | 60c | 3,339$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad27…9a7bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,328$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 43c | 3,218$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.17 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 19c | 3,077$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 63c | 3,069$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.69 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2e…b7f7backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23e…0b69backed No | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 33cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7c…14b0backed Yes | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…8b2fbacked No | 72c | 2,997$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…211cbacked Yes | 55c | 2,950$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a97…1f4bbacked Yes | 40c | 2,941$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,886$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,865$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 56c | 2,865$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.85 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…71b4backed Yes | 45c | 2,812$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 12c | 2,790$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.72 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b30…48a8backed Yes | 13c | 2,763$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…c1cfbacked Yes | 63c | 2,751$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x984a…ca99backed No | 66c | 2,749$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked No | 67c | 2,725$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60f…4140backed Yes | 19c | 2,718$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…a375backed No | 59c | 2,706$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…8ea1backed Yes | 19c | 2,699$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…95e7backed No | 55c | 2,623$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…1eaebacked No | 40c | 2,550$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,538$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…c116backed No | 45c | 2,515$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c77…8656backed No | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…6a83backed No | 60c | 2,462$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d8…289ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,414$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4364…d6a7backed No | 47c | 2,379$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.