Token Launches · resolved market
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8adc044bc721bb099f2045c070d1693050dbcb495dedc61248444e248e66a5d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $311,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,502 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 0c | 44,801$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 36,933$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…a26fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,830$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,806$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 9,621$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.02 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…2372backed Yes | 0c | 5,951$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…437dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,023$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…14d5backed Yes | 0c | 4,438$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…1adebacked Yes | 12c | 2,969$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x636e…579abacked Yes | 11c | 2,621$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,076$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…ee17backed Yes | 18c | 1,802$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.78 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -7.3wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 1c | 1,707$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 1c | 1,646$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,513$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 1cpaid | +1,462.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…0c81backed Yes | 3c | 1,512$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…6a7ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,464$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 1c | 1,440$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a34cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,257$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…6f05backed Yes | 9c | 1,156$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…5310backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…61eebacked Yes | 9c | 821.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 747.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 705.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…b99cbacked Yes | 12c | 593.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 563.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38b…c2a9backed Yes | 11c | 563.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…c0e2backed Yes | 7c | 558$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 536.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 534.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 80c | 415.7$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 6c | 412.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…d9e7backed Yes | 5c | 397.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…f9a5backed Yes | 12c | 385$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…6afdbacked Yes | 10c | 383$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7204…3f55backed Yes | 15c | 372$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9638…2556backed Yes | 15c | 335$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…1e4fbacked Yes | 12c | 330$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 75c | 309.79$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…427abacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61df…e103backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb1…097dbacked Yes | 14c | 282$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc808…ad5bbacked Yes | 11c | 280$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…5339backed Yes | 10c | 263.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…22f3backed Yes | 10c | 251$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac08…080cbacked No | 79c | 244.5$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617e…92a3backed Yes | 15c | 238$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 12c | 236.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 12c | 219.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0c…923cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…d2a2backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…4783backed Yes | 15c | 190$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 14c | 182.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…d2fdbacked Yes | 12c | 169$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af2…1843backed Yes | 12c | 160.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…7b3cbacked Yes | 12c | 159$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…aa6ebacked Yes | 13c | 151.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 144.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc7…a728backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8121…7626backed Yes | 30c | 135$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 77c | 117.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x316a…1f03backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed77…c191backed Yes | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…4e1fbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…9897backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5588…2a46backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…42dfbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…633cbacked Yes | 11c | 95.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…51ecbacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…dac4backed Yes | 12c | 89.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…6182backed No | 65c | 89.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked No | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 63.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…ced0backed Yes | 39c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…7ec2backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…95eabacked No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?this page
- Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.