Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542fb07feb00feddb87c1d9e93ebf439a692c6b12e81e935ef2a5cda7de70dfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,931,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,922,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,931,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 881 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1963…dd0cbacked Yes | 5c | 609,066$32,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,885.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 265,985$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.54 | 101 | 5.9%6 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked No | 79c | 118,335$93,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,143.91 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 11c | 104,162$11,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,739.05 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 18c | 93,969$16,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,463.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 20c | 92,496$18,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,422.56 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Yes | 17c | 87,999$14,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,909.78 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Yes | 15c | 74,739$10,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,900 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 18c | 73,098$13,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,137.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 16c | 66,150$10,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,700 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 4c | 63,715$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.3 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes | 1c | 53,740$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.52 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 53,269$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.44 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf103…22b7backed Yes | 0c | 52,887$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 14c | 52,843$7,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,532.96 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8f…17a4backed Yes | 0c | 43,842$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed Yes | 21c | 41,394$8,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,673.89 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +349.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…2667backed Yes | 2c | 38,292$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 33,716$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…71d8backed Yes | 0c | 33,399$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 32,249$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8028…6117backed No | 79c | 28,005$22,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,770.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 27,451$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x075e…1840backed Yes | 4c | 27,243$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.01 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…556dbacked Yes | 37c | 27,039$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,553$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 12c | 24,907$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes | 19c | 23,439$4,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,432.4 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ff…9b57backed Yes | 4c | 22,001$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 17c | 20,990$3,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,597.98 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…fc39backed Yes | 17c | 20,672$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,563.22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Yes | 15c | 20,317$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 19,855$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…fdf9backed Yes | 16c | 19,532$3,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,203.7 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 19,223$3,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,842.62 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 18,112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 3c | 18,038$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.16 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…10c9backed Yes | 3c | 17,669$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba94…f043backed Yes | 20c | 14,844$2,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,916 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 14,838$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.06 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c7…fc5fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,647$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…94c1backed Yes | 2c | 14,319$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…c38cbacked No | 68c | 13,967$9,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,469.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…53dabacked Yes | 0c | 13,466$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes | 11c | 12,983$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5c…c09ebacked Yes | 16c | 12,870$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes | 19c | 12,868$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…12e2backed Yes | 0c | 12,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…9036backed Yes | 14c | 12,239$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 2c | 11,962$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.67 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…c1d5backed Yes | 17c | 11,436$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 13c | 11,329$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.86 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 10,254$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ce…7438backed Yes | 1c | 10,206$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5755…473cbacked Yes | 24c | 10,155$2,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.08 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…59e8backed No | 77c | 9,770$7,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…7dadbacked Yes | 2c | 9,738$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…62a4backed Yes | 10c | 9,505$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.68 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce8…767bbacked Yes | 4c | 9,462$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…5effbacked Yes | 9c | 9,323$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 6c | 9,207$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.78 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…abc4backed No | 80c | 9,056$7,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd016…d7bcbacked Yes | 0c | 9,048$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…5400backed Yes | 11c | 9,036$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e16…9ca0backed Yes | 0c | 8,979$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4d…b4acbacked Yes | 0c | 8,777$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 68c | 8,700$5,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,802.2 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a2…1f64backed Yes | 4c | 8,616$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…4fecbacked No | 80c | 8,510$6,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.45 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 8,501$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.49 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…2e23backed Yes | 14c | 8,481$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…6ae1backed Yes | 8c | 8,060$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…0a4cbacked Yes | 12c | 8,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked No | 79c | 7,495$5,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.88 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7c…5017backed Yes | 9c | 7,242$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 72c | 7,014$5,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.92 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…5d3fbacked Yes | 5c | 7,012$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 6,963$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf698…d462backed Yes | 11c | 6,874$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…9193backed Yes | 10c | 6,703$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e9…f0f9backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…bd36backed Yes | 16c | 6,661$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…f593backed Yes | 15c | 6,624$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48bb…2a2bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,597$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd965…d28cbacked Yes | 16c | 6,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Yes | 14c | 6,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…e572backed Yes | 13c | 6,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…215abacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 5,824$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.24 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 73c | 5,529$4,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…8378backed Yes | 22c | 5,508$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.02 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a76…a1bbbacked Yes | 9c | 5,387$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721f…748bbacked Yes | 22c | 5,327$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e87…4999backed Yes | 16c | 5,291$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…f251backed Yes | 28c | 5,207$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked No | 80c | 5,190$4,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.