TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,931,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,922,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,931,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 881 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1963…dd0cbacked Yes5c609,066$32,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,885.71714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c265,985$2,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415.541015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No79c118,335$93,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,143.918100%8 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes11c104,162$11,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,739.05643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes18c93,969$16,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,463.9680%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes20c92,496$18,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,422.56323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes17c87,999$14,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,909.78319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x061e…5ab8backed Yes15c74,739$10,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,900911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Yes18c73,098$13,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,137.762138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes16c66,150$10,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,7008017.5%14 W · 66 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes4c63,715$2,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.31333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c53,740$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.52430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c53,269$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.441488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf103…22b7backed Yes0c52,887$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes14c52,843$7,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,532.9637745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad8f…17a4backed Yes0c43,842$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes21c41,394$8,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,673.893729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb3bb…2667backed Yes2c38,292$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c33,716$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.72710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes0c33,399$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c32,249$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.25800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8028…6117backed No79c28,005$22,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,770.3580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c27,451$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.121490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes4c27,243$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.012910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d36…556dbacked Yes37c27,039$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c25,553$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.55792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes12c24,907$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes19c23,439$4,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,432.414337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ff…9b57backed Yes4c22,001$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes17c20,990$3,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,597.9887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f0…fc39backed Yes17c20,672$3,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,563.2290%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Yes15c20,317$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c19,855$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.031360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Yes16c19,532$3,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,203.7229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c19,223$3,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,842.6264812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c18,112$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.112290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes3c18,038$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.165817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1aea…10c9backed Yes3c17,669$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba94…f043backed Yes20c14,844$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c14,838$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.066785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c7…fc5fbacked Yes0c14,647$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd088…94c1backed Yes2c14,319$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No68c13,967$9,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,469.582540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd1…53dabacked Yes0c13,466$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes11c12,983$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a5c…c09ebacked Yes16c12,870$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes19c12,868$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.321844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x95b4…12e2backed Yes0c12,250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04c…9036backed Yes14c12,239$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.85812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-83%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes2c11,962$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.67904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf575…c1d5backed Yes17c11,436$1,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.31100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes13c11,329$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.8618315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c10,254$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.781,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ce…7438backed Yes1c10,206$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.43812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-74.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5755…473cbacked Yes24c10,155$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.081915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed No77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3001050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9501…59e8backed No77c9,770$7,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.57966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6d…7dadbacked Yes2c9,738$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…62a4backed Yes10c9,505$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.683215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce8…767bbacked Yes4c9,462$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Yes9c9,323$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes6c9,207$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.783998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf328…abc4backed No80c9,056$7,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.231540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd016…d7bcbacked Yes0c9,048$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2158…5400backed Yes11c9,036$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e16…9ca0backed Yes0c8,979$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe4d…b4acbacked Yes0c8,777$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No68c8,700$5,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,802.24564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09a2…1f64backed Yes4c8,616$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a93…4fecbacked No80c8,510$6,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.451369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes12c8,501$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.498920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…2e23backed Yes14c8,481$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.281435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3860…6ae1backed Yes8c8,060$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c1…0a4cbacked Yes12c8,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No79c7,495$5,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.8815754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c7c…5017backed Yes9c7,242$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No72c7,014$5,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.924047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0197…5d3fbacked Yes5c7,012$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.5560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes2c6,963$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.246221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf698…d462backed Yes11c6,874$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+109.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff0c…9193backed Yes10c6,703$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e9…f0f9backed Yes0c6,667$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf6…bd36backed Yes16c6,661$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2644…f593backed Yes15c6,624$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48bb…2a2bbacked Yes2c6,597$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd965…d28cbacked Yes16c6,250$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Yes14c6,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-75.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes13c6,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7803716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a0…215abacked Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c9…d064backed Yes2c6,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c5,824$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.242125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e48…95c7backed No73c5,529$4,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.19966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd389…8378backed Yes22c5,508$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.02195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-86.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a76…a1bbbacked Yes9c5,387$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721f…748bbacked Yes22c5,327$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e87…4999backed Yes16c5,291$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2938…f251backed Yes28c5,207$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef6…f63abacked No80c5,190$4,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.