TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,218,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,347,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,218,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c427,020$3,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,775.57590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes1c149,999$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c112,173$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.7318315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c57,717$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.72792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c57,626$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.581070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes0c39,460$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.842729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes1c30,491$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.98320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c30,079$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.08250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c30,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes1c25,556$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a71…a5adbacked Yes0c23,800$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf852…9171backed Yes1c20,482$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48bb…2a2bbacked Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc565…0779backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9055…7b78backed Yes1c19,483$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a74…5ed6backed Yes0c15,508$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Yes0c15,305$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x209f…6d76backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick6cpaid+1,441.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…35b7backed Yes1c14,328$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c14,044$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.181488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fe44backed Yes1c14,040$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.24520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c12,898$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.226785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1479…054dbacked Yes1c11,641$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c11,379$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.38800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafa6…9a51backed Yes1c11,046$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbac…64cabacked Yes0c10,333$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…fe8fbacked Yes1c10,269$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3331…8587backed Yes1c10,089$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100200%0 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa337…04adbacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed4…bda4backed Yes1c9,706$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5012…e6bfbacked Yes1c9,682$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes1c9,058$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.81250%0 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5b8…454dbacked Yes1c8,695$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x093d…7e85backed Yes1c8,361$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b4…2286backed Yes1c8,239$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec84…f08abacked Yes0c8,091$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf3e…75edbacked Yes1c8,043$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878f…53f7backed Yes1c7,455$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…aefebacked Yes1c7,227$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes1c7,222$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbee2…8db2backed Yes1c7,195$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334e…708cbacked Yes1c7,160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba94…f043backed Yes1c6,857$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a56…7062backed Yes1c6,707$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ea…3793backed Yes1c6,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146a…63b2backed Yes0c6,095$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cb3fbacked Yes1c6,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc30f…6e13backed Yes0c5,962$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5990%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24f4…0f4abacked Yes1c5,910$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes1c5,849$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.755817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0495…8db9backed Yes1c5,714$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39b…67e6backed Yes1c5,124$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9949…13ffbacked Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c1e…1684backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c4,801$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.72125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1082…059abacked Yes1c4,776$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ee…2bddbacked Yes1c4,776$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes1c4,413$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.62478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c4,385$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.83855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bd…e484backed Yes1c4,311$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf541…0ce4backed Yes1c4,248$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c6…f4b4backed Yes1c4,100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c4,097$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.97430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf1…8234backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f1…65d3backed Yes1c3,886$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf719…d9e1backed Yes1c3,742$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a4e…a184backed Yes0c3,727$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d70…6293backed Yes1c3,683$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc5…58fbbacked Yes0c3,556$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c3,520$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.593998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed Yes2c3,503$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.212114.3%3 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9499…460ebacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda2d…3689backed Yes1c3,288$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7914…9341backed Yes1c3,268$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc3…7f3dbacked Yes1c3,240$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff0…20b6backed Yes1c3,167$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ee…25f0backed Yes2c3,097$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904d…b329backed Yes1c3,081$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf445…1f8abacked Yes1c3,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.22110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c2,880$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2514…b927backed Yes1c2,723$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc274…f637backed Yes1c2,700$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd65e…3be0backed Yes1c2,626$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984d…b682backed Yes1c2,625$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25300%0 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c2,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf20e…b119backed Yes1c2,590$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes1c2,556$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b9…337dbacked Yes1c2,532$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8f…899ebacked Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c2,407$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.961463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…09f7backed Yes1c2,376$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff52…ec82backed Yes1c2,375$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e73…4086backed Yes1c2,364$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf20c…c4a2backed Yes1c2,286$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8e9…c77bbacked Yes1c2,273$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1027…9709backed Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.