Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdccec494008c9af26950344892d67984a045a7e96a6e7d3cd8e57d5bbbc38841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $877,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,010,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $877,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 0c | 57,193$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 34,919$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 27,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Yes | 1c | 20,780$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,888$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 1c | 17,233$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 16,252$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,549$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 0c | 11,703$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,828$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…71d8backed Yes | 0c | 10,620$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,872$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 7,148$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 0c | 5,399$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…d85cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,075$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea35…4e76backed Yes | 0c | 5,075$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 4,862$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 4,844$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…381abacked Yes | 0c | 4,275$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4d…13ecbacked Yes | 0c | 4,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…496cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c67…4eaebacked Yes | 0c | 4,082$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…dfa1backed Yes | 0c | 4,082$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 1c | 4,020$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa11c…8030backed Yes | 1c | 3,919$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…1771backed Yes | 0c | 3,918$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…a979backed Yes | 0c | 3,852$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d53…d5aabacked Yes | 1c | 2,123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 8cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…8da7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b68…8f64backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,768$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…6baabacked Yes | 1c | 1,009$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.