TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,349,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,564,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,349,535 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c414,346$3,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,583.86590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c3…18cfbacked Yes2c209,746$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,35730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c134,722$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.1618315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes2c100,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55c…74babacked Yes2c84,537$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes1c80,758$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes2c77,288$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.19323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c70,700$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.061488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c56,663$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.66792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c50,788$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.751015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes1c50,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf445…1f8abacked Yes1c41,000$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.85110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c39,664$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.471333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c37,830$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.211070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c32,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e94…3d35backed Yes2c29,048$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.59520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c28,950$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.951360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff0c…9193backed Yes1c28,216$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f4…0fc7backed Yes1c27,657$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-71.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes2c25,143$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf122…de6dbacked Yes3c23,100$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9818…759abacked Yes0c22,531$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c21,000$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.396785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf212…28c7backed Yes2c20,000$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes2c19,282$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x965c…f475backed Yes0c18,843$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24f4…0f4abacked Yes0c14,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa57c…df81backed Yes2c14,248$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes2c14,085$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.35319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c13,495$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.321693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes1c13,235$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.625817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd6d…7dadbacked Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0197…5d3fbacked Yes1c11,859$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48bb…2a2bbacked Yes1c11,309$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b2c…a9f3backed Yes1c10,260$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.61323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c10,236$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.15430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f3…e710backed Yes1c10,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada9…93ccbacked Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes2c9,417$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.19432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…4a2abacked Yes1c9,029$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c79…9b02backed Yes1c8,445$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x093d…7e85backed Yes1c8,200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c8,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes1c7,964$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6250%0 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2771…df92backed Yes1c7,746$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes1c7,513$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd1…53dabacked Yes0c7,217$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc30f…6e13backed Yes2c6,964$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x092c…3175backed Yes1c6,910$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b19…d962backed Yes1c6,899$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1479…054dbacked Yes3c6,686$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c6,464$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.472125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa765…ec70backed Yes3c6,357$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.771216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a4…27cfbacked Yes3c6,127$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee0b…f049backed Yes2c5,993$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141637.5%6 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+209.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c5,977$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.99855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddb…4eeebacked Yes2c5,861$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.63714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes2c5,797$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick2cpaid+510%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba94…f043backed Yes1c5,714$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed Yes1c5,532$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed Yes1c5,522$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.766053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf389…5e72backed Yes1c5,440$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25cb…14f0backed Yes2c5,358$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6513…bc32backed Yes2c5,321$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c5,281$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c5,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0096…de43backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52be…af6dbacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes2c4,892$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+88.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x984d…b682backed Yes1c4,875$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72300%0 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f1…e72bbacked Yes2c4,768$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa694…3f17backed Yes2c4,762$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc504…7a4cbacked Yes1c4,734$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.932737%10 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79b5…c1f9backed Yes2c4,582$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes1c4,438$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.94224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x560d…a298backed Yes1c4,185$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff6c…0ab7backed Yes1c4,182$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc2…90e6backed Yes1c4,167$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c4,052$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.133998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x035c…9924backed Yes1c4,026$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e6e…489bbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ce…7438backed Yes0c4,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.58812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-74.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefcc…54d1backed Yes3c3,983$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c3,939$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.47636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes1c3,922$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.85160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes1c3,715$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a8…10c4backed Yes1c3,646$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f93…ea49backed Yes2c3,541$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes2c3,375$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.013729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes1c3,372$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b9…9471backed Yes1c3,351$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+300.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c3,332$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.791463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c3,300$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.91073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf12d…cf2bbacked Yes2c3,125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a9…8e5abacked Yes2c3,044$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3092…fb0abacked Yes1c2,988$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c9…e360backed Yes2c2,960$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357d…8c4fbacked Yes2c2,881$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa6…9a51backed Yes1c2,667$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.