TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,040,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,042,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,040,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 649 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes10c311,615$32,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,193.4335123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes19c201,213$38,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,057.172321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes1c177,714$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.861631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f1…2417backed Yes5c117,030$5,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,890.731513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed No78c103,531$80,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,944.156835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes4c51,285$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.6423411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No74c48,711$36,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,452.7658126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes7c38,906$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,531.741010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ea…4524backed Yes4c36,303$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.6119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa92c…ee4fbacked Yes7c32,252$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c32,092$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.211,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes2c29,609$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.826622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x8028…6117backed No77c29,318$22,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,812.66580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes3c28,142$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.811216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed Yes7c27,831$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes4c26,940$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.733318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c25,440$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.566785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31f1…b4fbbacked Yes3c25,382$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes3c24,766$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.663729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc1f8…6b0abacked Yes4c23,722$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.42450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+452%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf20…ddb8backed Yes4c23,522$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.99540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick9cpaid+191.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9151…01ebbacked Yes6c22,772$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25480%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c22,045$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.461015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Yes16c21,212$3,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No78c20,951$16,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,514.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick56cpaid-78.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4150…ebdabacked Yes2c20,833$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3f…7112backed Yes1c20,304$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.672512%3 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c19,500$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.518315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbf0…28c0backed Yes1c19,207$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.54933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+223.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes5c17,888$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.023611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1bb…a95dbacked Yes4c17,700$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.27633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+245.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes3c16,662$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.171435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+92.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1714…1cdebacked Yes4c16,485$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.14728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+76.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes6c15,193$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.338713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes4c14,706$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.871333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc33b…2372backed Yes1c14,665$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes4c14,591$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c14,203$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.761490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c13,245$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.7664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked No79c13,184$10,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,734.321010%1 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-87.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0ca…0ec2backed Yes4c12,754$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+160.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes8c12,541$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.532766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb361…575ebacked Yes3c12,060$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes3c12,038$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.591466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes2c11,474$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.685817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d043backed Yes3c10,774$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2861827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes5c10,613$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.578920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5987…5f98backed Yes5c10,519$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1087…013bbacked Yes6c10,483$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.833613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e4…e12cbacked Yes4c10,421$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes1c10,100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No77c10,047$7,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.4316761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.9910313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f69…d657backed Yes3c9,839$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+184.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes3c8,899$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.186813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07ee…6f61backed Yes2c8,862$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+125.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba72…21aabacked Yes3c8,851$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes3c8,743$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.212920.7%6 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+74.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee0b…f049backed Yes10c8,713$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.231637.5%6 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+209.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes2c8,673$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40e…ba87backed Yes1c8,553$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.12714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes2c8,247$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.983998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes5c8,103$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.391822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+298.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes2c7,928$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff3…1355backed Yes4c7,820$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes5c7,807$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes3c7,692$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003923.1%9 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+103.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24bb…d271backed Yes0c7,613$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes5c7,583$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.155726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0b6…2505backed Yes10c7,542$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.861136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+202.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x10d7…09c3backed Yes3c7,382$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c6…1c37backed Yes2c7,380$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.52per pick25cpaid+743.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6f47…338ebacked Yes7c7,369$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c7,332$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.384163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c7,064$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.822125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes2c7,000$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1219…862dbacked Yes5c6,935$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50c…4af1backed Yes20c6,729$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5755…473cbacked Yes15c6,643$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.691915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed7…043ebacked Yes14c6,093$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.39812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick44cpaid-75.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac2…f63bbacked Yes10c5,939$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes4c5,862$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.25643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf04…11e3backed Yes10c5,710$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.311618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+151.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3493…9538backed Yes9c5,604$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No74c5,555$4,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3590…e8e5backed Yes15c5,411$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.98933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd64…f9dabacked Yes4c5,386$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.09450%2 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+883.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes3c5,333$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.636221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf40f…e473backed Yes2c5,300$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2d…601bbacked Yes2c5,238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+54.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b7…924dbacked Yes5c5,098$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.97450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+141.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes2c5,083$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06db…1e5cbacked Yes2c5,075$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57bc…d82dbacked Yes6c5,070$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb24e…7303backed Yes22c4,901$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c0…d319backed Yes1c4,873$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes8c4,830$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4103321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8242…6577backed Yes2c4,679$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb148…bb0ebacked Yes39c4,651$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.161533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c4…2852backed Yes17c4,500$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.