Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b3b27c066f30dcfe23803e5882c5b72bc8de77f9a4c219e5848bc27b3e1840
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $838,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $852,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $838,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 0c | 70,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 64,375$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 79 | 2.5%2 W · 77 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -96%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 37,397$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 23,999$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 0c | 19,994$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce90…d285backed Yes | 0c | 15,831$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 0c | 13,868$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…de52backed Yes | 0c | 13,562$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 0c | 11,619$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,441$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…9dbabacked Yes | 0c | 6,023$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…d85cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,124$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…5180backed Yes | 0c | 5,124$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…11b7backed Yes | 0c | 5,115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…f48bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f08…1079backed Yes | 0c | 4,993$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…853dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,765$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 0c | 4,552$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4e…5a13backed Yes | 0c | 4,199$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…bf30backed Yes | 0c | 4,195$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…8390backed Yes | 0c | 4,195$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…6005backed Yes | 0c | 4,182$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa420…c80ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,178$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…5482backed Yes | 0c | 4,062$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0d…c186backed Yes | 0c | 4,042$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…f731backed Yes | 0c | 3,951$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30e…8d3cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,892$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f0…e318backed Yes | 0c | 3,871$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 1c | 3,801$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 3,361$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…b73abacked Yes | 1c | 2,465$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…6baabacked Yes | 1c | 1,896$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.