TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$832,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$715,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $832,839 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c75,549$76 inLost-$75.55792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Yes0c67,021$134 inLost-$134.04229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c60,049$60 inLost-$60.05130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c45,848$99 inLost-$98.571070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes0c29,021$41 inLost-$40.943318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9712…8b10backed Yes0c24,337$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost-$401315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-54.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes0c12,000$28 inLost-$281519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ff…96babacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost-$22166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…a979backed Yes0c10,074$30 inLost-$30.223225%8 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$201488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74c9…d064backed Yes0c7,000$14 inLost-$14342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes0c6,825$14 inLost-$13.65110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf437…b73abacked Yes1c6,637$39 inLost-$39.2660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c5,704$17 inLost-$17.111360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aba…55a7backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf966…86e7backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-84.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9597…90e5backed Yes0c4,262$13 inLost-$12.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.