TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,025,595
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,812,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,025,595 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,541 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1963…dd0cbacked Yes24c975,770$232,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232,168.89714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes40c282,327$113,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,327.2337745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No44c257,955$112,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145,143.492540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes36c225,830$82,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,122.7963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked No71c195,172$138,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,891.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x137c…b9ffbacked Yes0c188,240$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes1c160,812$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.72910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes3c140,018$3,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,984.721333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf915…8720backed No70c113,314$79,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,610.741090%9 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick62cpaid+49.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d36…556dbacked Yes59c108,974$64,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,769.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c107,903$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.61015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Yes33c103,771$34,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,393.062138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8509…dee2backed Yes11c84,970$9,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,057.3450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+167.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes42c83,760$35,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,127.7887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a76…a1bbbacked Yes6c80,829$5,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,169.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed No56c77,305$43,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,804.61376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes5c77,037$4,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,078.26643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes36c67,000$23,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,882.89319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d48…40d5backed Yes21c62,757$13,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,260.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes2c62,617$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.92430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes15c61,208$9,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,242.212227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07e4…d2cfbacked Yes0c59,328$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes7c56,048$3,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,737.394528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf103…22b7backed Yes1c52,650$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.4340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes9c51,932$4,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,659.911533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Yes1c50,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes28c49,754$13,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,727.65034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes10c49,349$4,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,834.334047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes65c45,000$29,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,050323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed No48c44,394$21,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,087.681050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcd4…84ddbacked No66c41,467$27,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,969.251471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x061e…5ab8backed Yes37c40,727$15,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,200911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d0…8395backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes14c39,813$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6008017.5%14 W · 66 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No54c39,702$21,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,226.1414337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c39,538$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.54710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5755…473cbacked Yes29c39,514$11,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,513.971915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes31c38,884$11,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,863.7380%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes0c38,725$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.72250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768b…9c01backed Yes9c38,609$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,458.1837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+159.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c37,995$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…2870backed Yes38c37,667$14,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,481.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba94…f043backed Yes34c36,759$12,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,547.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed No62c31,964$19,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,002.283582.9%29 W · 6 L+6.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+29.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes3c31,509$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.032010%2 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e48…95c7backed Yes58c30,171$17,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,620.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c30,092$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.192290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bca…ca1fbacked Yes50c30,028$15,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,071.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97e8…be6cbacked Yes9c29,824$2,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Yes12c29,042$3,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,463.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c28,518$7,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,982.3464812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes16c27,877$4,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,379.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeba7…85b9backed Yes55c27,474$15,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,09920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed No59c27,362$16,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,162.842152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5987…5f98backed Yes0c26,500$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c25,553$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.55792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick1cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No58c24,945$14,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,373.993551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d61…12f6backed No76c24,840$18,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,962.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes40c23,322$9,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,221.5822550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9346…ea03backed Yes10c23,149$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,42810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed Yes2c22,986$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+541.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97c1…d9e9backed Yes44c22,448$9,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,913.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d3…2acebacked Yes2c22,130$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde47…d724backed Yes7c21,473$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d0…efacbacked Yes37c20,300$7,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,560.96825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed No50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Yes0c20,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.011010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,199.9712025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed No64c19,999$12,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,133.046657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8283…29aebacked Yes2c19,300$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No59c18,724$11,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,642.34564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb695…2bc7backed Yes0c18,621$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae4…33acbacked Yes0c18,609$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe821…b27ebacked Yes31c17,988$5,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.01650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+112.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc504…7a4cbacked Yes44c17,938$7,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,923.442737%10 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3bb…2667backed Yes4c16,709$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fb…3d0ebacked Yes1c16,531$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+126%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e43…17b6backed Yes35c16,359$5,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,722.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked No76c16,348$12,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,916.091612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602c…0c62backed No70c16,000$11,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,753.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c8…424fbacked Yes0c15,833$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb587…2df6backed Yes40c15,788$6,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,244.4160%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…0f5ebacked Yes0c15,566$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick10cpaid+274.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6f9…5507backed Yes3c15,197$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+45%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94a5…aec1backed Yes40c15,022$6,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,012.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes15c15,008$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.913716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed No70c15,001$10,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,569.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No62c14,913$9,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,674.2958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes4c13,995$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.141915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c13,815$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.516785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c13,675$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.461490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed No33c13,423$4,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,932.112850%14 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+44.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x00cf…06f1backed Yes39c12,928$5,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,022.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9b…6eeabacked Yes32c12,886$4,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,133.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6016…f246backed Yes44c12,200$5,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,410.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8028…6117backed No50c12,010$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,010.09580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd638…a79bbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No76c11,891$9,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,841.46475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed No64c11,545$7,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,111.526625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.