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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,150,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,761,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,150,723 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6810…38a3backed Yes0c223,911$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.851631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes2c117,373$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,245.856622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc704…045cbacked Yes2c100,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes8c93,372$7,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,642.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…3365backed Yes1c86,626$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba72…21aabacked Yes2c82,086$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes0c60,647$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.594010%4 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c6…1c37backed Yes1c53,163$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.52977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.52per pick25cpaid+743.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x8392…b94ebacked Yes1c51,575$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes2c43,411$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.623729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c43,237$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.591466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes1c42,524$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.6740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c41,330$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.131490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb48…a9ebbacked Yes4c36,852$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c36,683$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.551,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c34,442$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.44792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…1223backed Yes3c34,001$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+261.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c33,732$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.3218315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e0d…a69dbacked Yes3c33,350$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9151…01ebbacked Yes3c33,236$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05280%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c31,933$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.872290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes2c30,581$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.993611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c29,597$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c29,423$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.291360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c25,057$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.06800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes0c24,963$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.96250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes1c23,675$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes2c22,992$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.85147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-91.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes6c20,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c19,392$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5323411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe89e…0600backed Yes2c19,310$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick16cpaid+169.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1714…1cdebacked Yes2c18,229$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.57728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+76.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c17,609$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.356785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ac…86e4backed Yes2c17,052$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes2c16,663$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes3c15,712$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes1c15,574$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.795817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e04…cb9ebacked Yes1c15,223$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick1cpaid+406%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes1c15,035$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes1c15,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes1c14,901$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.72224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes2c13,850$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+177.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x259c…90c1backed Yes1c13,250$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e2…04b9backed Yes1c13,030$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.94128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd608…98b8backed Yes1c12,958$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes4c12,151$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.92944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc86c…92f0backed Yes1c10,995$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes1c10,922$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.162920.7%6 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+74.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd940…f849backed Yes1c10,249$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes1c10,020$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed Yes2c10,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb361…575ebacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c9,800$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes3c9,450$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2793321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ce…7438backed Yes1c9,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-74.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7982…97b7backed Yes1c8,364$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick4cpaid+269.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes1c8,361$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x055d…9148backed Yes0c8,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c8,162$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.57482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes4c8,010$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2954754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ff…96babacked Yes3c7,676$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.29166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf527…8ea4backed Yes1c7,429$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1087…013bbacked Yes1c7,395$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.373613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032b…603dbacked Yes1c7,000$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd29…8ee7backed Yes1c6,972$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Yes0c6,667$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.331010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b3…ca4ebacked Yes0c6,525$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+191.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15e6…3c2bbacked Yes2c6,457$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.861338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1844…79d9backed Yes0c6,402$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes3c6,252$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.121651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x590f…173ebacked Yes1c6,230$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.08540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+347.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes2c6,112$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.813312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-69.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c63…b28bbacked Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c5,936$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.993998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes2c5,826$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c9…d064backed Yes1c5,730$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.44342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes1c5,487$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.866816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd2e2…cb99backed Yes1c5,458$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes4c5,359$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c5,268$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.712125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e86…4bd1backed Yes1c5,246$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes1c5,181$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes1c5,169$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.158920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3360…955bbacked Yes0c5,168$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.344311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe58e…afc3backed Yes1c5,074$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…a979backed Yes2c5,016$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.843225%8 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2863…4ac0backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+208.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc891…a35ebacked Yes3c5,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+57.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf04…11e3backed Yes1c4,999$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.991618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+151.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49cb…3144backed Yes2c4,762$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f8…6b0abacked Yes3c4,446$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.16450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+452%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c4,305$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.82855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x432e…40e7backed Yes0c4,286$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab4e…ba10backed Yes1c4,192$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5987…5f98backed Yes1c4,140$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7bc…a52bbacked Yes2c4,095$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0005…900bbacked Yes0c4,064$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3092…fb0abacked Yes3c4,022$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes2c4,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793813.2%5 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.