Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62f01109c53d585406b4545e5538b52d76f2895affd933da75190be788afc6ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,583,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,279,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,583,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,076 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 65c | 482,716$315,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315,406.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 73c | 366,519$266,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266,389.31 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…013abacked No | 0c | 353,126$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,111.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 35c | 330,460$116,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213,845.09 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 34c | 276,010$94,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181,338.87 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…48e8backed No | 4c | 208,761$9,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,126.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…47e1backed Yes | 20c | 141,840$27,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113,968.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 35c | 133,213$46,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,896.72 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…34f4backed No | 0c | 101,558$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…113cbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…d9efbacked No | 1c | 88,377$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…c38cbacked No | 56c | 80,466$44,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,701.14 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…2ad1backed No | 0c | 78,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 42c | 74,731$31,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,263.35 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed Yes | 17c | 65,556$10,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,564.27 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +349.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…dd0cbacked Yes | 24c | 55,775$13,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,589.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 34c | 55,738$19,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,711.42 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…185cbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d25…a301backed No | 0c | 48,573$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +332.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed Yes | 40c | 48,379$19,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,176.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 44c | 48,069$21,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,994.23 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes | 30c | 44,640$13,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,382.51 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 60c | 43,778$26,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,441.04 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 26c | 43,705$11,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,171.86 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…45c6backed No | 60c | 41,470$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 36,800$10,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,603.15 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes | 14c | 35,699$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,699.14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…7a4cbacked Yes | 35c | 31,917$11,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,843.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…2ce9backed Yes | 61c | 31,361$19,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,354.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…6576backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…7631backed No | 68c | 28,052$19,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,140.68 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 22c | 27,855$6,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,071.63 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 24c | 27,855$6,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,045.21 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6352…6726backed No | 77c | 25,576$19,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,609 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48bc…040ebacked No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes | 31c | 23,362$7,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,007.55 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7a…ccbfbacked Yes | 14c | 22,080$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,079.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +636%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb776…0297backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…ed03backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed Yes | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a9…6faabacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 74c | 19,237$14,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,326.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 42c | 18,861$7,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,961.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…0776backed No | 63c | 18,548$11,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,666.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…10a6backed No | 38c | 18,086$6,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,961 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…b1afbacked Yes | 32c | 17,857$5,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,112.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…9f37backed Yes | 13c | 17,455$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,255 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked No | 0c | 17,085$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked No | 0c | 16,778$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…1ff5backed No | 0c | 16,646$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…fefbbacked Yes | 15c | 16,503$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,032.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +233.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 29c | 16,230$4,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,528.89 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…3c2bbacked Yes | 38c | 16,206$6,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,101.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…71d8backed No | 0c | 16,114$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…9054backed No | 0c | 16,065$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…efacbacked Yes | 30c | 16,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 13c | 15,263$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,289.45 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f79…bc67backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1e…cbe8backed No | 0c | 14,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 45c | 13,971$6,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,668.21 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…e203backed No | 73c | 13,928$10,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,150 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 46c | 13,486$6,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,285.2 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked Yes | 59c | 13,319$7,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,450.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 59c | 13,007$7,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,616.42 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…0e96backed No | 78c | 12,880$10,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,099.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d043backed Yes | 20c | 12,549$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,064.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…d6dabacked No | 0c | 12,259$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 35c | 12,000$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,814.97 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 25c | 11,746$2,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,821.4 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…0070backed No | 7c | 11,417$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba94…f043backed No | 58c | 11,333$6,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,560 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…e34abacked No | 0c | 11,303$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Yes | 17c | 11,183$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,312.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…ee68backed Yes | 31c | 10,610$3,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,341.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…5affbacked No | 2c | 10,490$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…6209backed Yes | 39c | 10,121$3,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,131.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes | 26c | 10,100$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,434.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 31c | 10,075$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,994.9 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 60c | 10,000$5,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,967.49 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…f962backed Yes | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bf…c998backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,500 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc861…7d72backed No | 0c | 9,958$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 24c | 9,898$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,483.65 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 29c | 9,888$2,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,029.97 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…f268backed Yes | 21c | 9,500$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,504.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 71c | 9,409$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2580…1d56backed No | 63c | 9,233$5,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,830.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…efebbacked No | 0c | 9,167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…3d75backed No | 77c | 8,700$6,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,699 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76cb…55d3backed No | 69c | 8,622$5,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,929 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed No | 60c | 8,500$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031e…b68dbacked Yes | 27c | 8,403$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,134.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…a979backed Yes | 27c | 8,384$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,153.72 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 60c | 8,351$5,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,022.05 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c161backed No | 60c | 8,275$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 34c | 8,161$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,387.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc928…a64dbacked No | 52c | 8,042$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…d89dbacked Yes | 46c | 7,800$3,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,212 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 13c | 7,800$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,770.97 | 101 | 5.9%6 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in January?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.