TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,583,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,279,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,583,813 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,076 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b78…4d2fbacked No65c482,716$315,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315,406.171625%4 W · 12 L-5.9wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-62.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No73c366,519$266,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266,389.314564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fec…013abacked No0c353,126$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.13250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+1,111.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes35c330,460$116,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213,845.0963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes34c276,010$94,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181,338.8735123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb5…48e8backed No4c208,761$9,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,126.69450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1be9…47e1backed Yes20c141,840$27,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,968.8650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+144.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes35c133,213$46,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,896.7237745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb7…34f4backed No0c101,558$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf982…113cbacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x855c…d9efbacked No1c88,377$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No56c80,466$44,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,701.142540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf81…2ad1backed No0c78,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes42c74,731$31,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,263.3587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes17c65,556$10,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,564.273729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1963…dd0cbacked Yes24c55,775$13,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,589.13714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes34c55,738$19,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,711.4222550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50bd…185cbacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d25…a301backed No0c48,573$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+332.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7277…ab80backed Yes40c48,379$19,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,176.051154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes44c48,069$21,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,994.234047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes30c44,640$13,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,382.5114337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed No60c43,778$26,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,441.042227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes26c43,705$11,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,171.8623411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x635c…45c6backed No60c41,470$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c36,800$10,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,603.1564812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes14c35,699$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,699.142321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc504…7a4cbacked Yes35c31,917$11,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,843.982737%10 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e08…2ce9backed Yes61c31,361$19,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,354.024100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4742…6576backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No68c28,052$19,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,140.683447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No22c27,855$6,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,071.632540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Yes24c27,855$6,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,045.212138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6352…6726backed No77c25,576$19,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,609366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48bc…040ebacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes31c23,362$7,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,007.556835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7a…ccbfbacked Yes14c22,080$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,079.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+636%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb776…0297backed No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+270.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4b…ed03backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Yes47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,600366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a9…6faabacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No74c19,237$14,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,326.643351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes42c18,861$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,961.53540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0afd…0776backed No63c18,548$11,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,666.33540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+74.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ca…10a6backed No38c18,086$6,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,961250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc086…b1afbacked Yes32c17,857$5,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,112.36520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb71…9f37backed Yes13c17,455$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,255333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+164.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked No0c17,085$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.08710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked No0c16,778$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.78800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a74…1ff5backed No0c16,646$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3321…fefbbacked Yes15c16,503$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,032.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+233.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes29c16,230$4,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,528.895034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e6…3c2bbacked Yes38c16,206$6,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,101.821338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed No0c16,114$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…9054backed No0c16,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.98128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95d0…efacbacked Yes30c16,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,200825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes13c15,263$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,289.45643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f79…bc67backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1e…cbe8backed No0c14,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes45c13,971$6,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,668.212766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb424…e203backed No73c13,928$10,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,1501478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes46c13,486$6,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,285.216761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked Yes59c13,319$7,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,450.131060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No59c13,007$7,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,616.427163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d86…0e96backed No78c12,880$10,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,099.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d043backed Yes20c12,549$2,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,064.931827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d41…d6dabacked No0c12,259$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes35c12,000$4,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,814.971729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes25c11,746$2,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,821.411316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4100…0070backed No7c11,417$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba94…f043backed No58c11,333$6,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,560911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c58…e34abacked No0c11,303$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Yes17c11,183$1,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,312.351225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55dd…ee68backed Yes31c10,610$3,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,341.931010%1 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked No2c10,490$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aeb…6209backed Yes39c10,121$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,131.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes26c10,100$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,434.981844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes31c10,075$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,994.98920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No60c10,000$5,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,967.493164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cee…f962backed Yes35c10,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46bf…c998backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes15c10,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,5002850%14 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+44.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc861…7d72backed No0c9,958$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes24c9,898$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,483.657949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes29c9,888$2,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,029.975726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc0a…f268backed Yes21c9,500$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,504.99540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+120.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No71c9,409$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7004242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed No63c9,233$5,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,830.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbeaa…efebbacked No0c9,167$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed No77c8,700$6,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,69920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76cb…55d3backed No69c8,622$5,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,92910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5975…6820backed No60c8,500$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x031e…b68dbacked Yes27c8,403$2,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,134.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…a979backed Yes27c8,384$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,153.723225%8 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed No60c8,351$5,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,022.0517231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed No60c8,275$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88db…3843backed Yes34c8,161$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,387.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc928…a64dbacked No52c8,042$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2795…d89dbacked Yes46c7,800$3,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2123100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes13c7,800$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,770.971015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.