TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,080,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,934,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,080,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c223,768$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.65590%0 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c76,700$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86218315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c56,651$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.65792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24f4…0f4abacked Yes0c55,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes1c50,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba31…de52backed Yes0c45,292$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c43,167$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.51070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9818…759abacked Yes0c34,490$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…2667backed Yes0c34,325$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf592…bc57backed Yes2c28,854$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c21,074$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.852290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Yes1c20,099$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.54229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes0c18,995$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c18,888$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes2c17,917$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes1c17,391$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.36323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c17,337$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.34710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee2…8db2backed Yes1c16,825$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5012…e6bfbacked Yes1c16,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3092…fb0abacked Yes1c16,325$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e9…7967backed Yes1c15,384$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.713548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c14,400$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.126785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe567…ca71backed Yes2c10,755$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c10,470$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.54430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd19f…cfaabacked Yes1c10,446$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Yes1c10,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes2c10,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1607810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2159…ab9abacked Yes1c10,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf212…28c7backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes1c9,729$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e94…3d35backed Yes1c9,527$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Yes1c9,500$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-75.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c56…5102backed Yes1c9,464$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c9,417$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.591333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c8,713$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.431693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4c…3d2abacked Yes1c8,250$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48bb…2a2bbacked Yes1c7,809$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes1c7,680$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.735817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x01a6…483bbacked Yes0c7,243$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba94…f043backed Yes1c7,179$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48e9…f0f9backed Yes0c6,667$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1479…054dbacked Yes2c6,562$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x212a…dbe8backed Yes1c6,543$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.34812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick2cpaid+105.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Yes1c6,459$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.68128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-81.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a5…fe97backed Yes1c6,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32a…87bcbacked Yes1c5,963$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f8…1430backed Yes2c5,850$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f92…3434backed Yes1c5,800$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c5,396$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.981488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c5,381$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba0…909dbacked Yes0c5,108$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ea…3793backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30f…6e13backed Yes1c4,976$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c4,360$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.22125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0197…5d3fbacked Yes1c4,305$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c9…d064backed Yes0c3,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,433$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191c…ad6ebacked Yes1c3,385$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a9…8e5abacked Yes1c3,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c3,300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc5…58fbbacked Yes0c3,189$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c3,127$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe849…434dbacked Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,892$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.991,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes1c2,778$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc57b…8281backed Yes1c2,778$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa337…04adbacked Yes1c2,778$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c2,704$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.35636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6b…8c98backed Yes1c2,633$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b33…9b98backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334e…708cbacked Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28aa…28b8backed Yes1c2,401$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes1c2,377$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.28160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95d0…af50backed Yes1c2,337$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0171…7f5ebacked Yes2c2,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes1c2,308$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick2cpaid+510%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55fc…8576backed Yes1c2,141$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.41922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid-34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd389…8378backed Yes1c2,075$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-86.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x834d…26f8backed Yes1c2,049$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7709…841ebacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39e…8f14backed Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a62…66b8backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes1c1,970$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c1,800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed Yes1c1,664$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.632114.3%3 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b07…fcc7backed Yes1c1,651$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c1,612$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.621073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x093d…7e85backed Yes1c1,538$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed4…bda4backed Yes1c1,522$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c1,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.751519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x984d…b682backed Yes1c1,452$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20300%0 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e9…d52dbacked Yes1c1,438$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b55…be47backed Yes1c1,359$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes1c1,359$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d1…1abebacked Yes1c1,219$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceee…d135backed Yes2c1,205$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x340c…1262backed Yes1c1,196$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e3…ec94backed Yes2c1,161$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.