TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$485,929
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$529,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,929 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes5c24,510$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2221040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes1c20,543$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed Yes7c19,843$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.333237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d5…6b9abacked Yes29c17,169$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No74c11,938$8,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.395137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c11,220$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.41712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51c7…71b4backed Yes13c10,230$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.111020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-58.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0460…8d22backed Yes42c9,511$4,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,026.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed No73c8,322$6,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.76955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6182…788ebacked Yes4c7,918$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.111643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb187…bbe1backed No34c7,398$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,907.151546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c6,329$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.552377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6a…be7ebacked No47c5,815$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.822352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a91…0937backed Yes37c5,572$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No72c5,283$3,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.857255.6%40 W · 32 L+11.3wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+42.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked No37c5,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,160250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes62c4,827$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,975.514847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda0…9553backed Yes32c4,638$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.081154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes16c4,604$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.08618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe689…cfd9backed Yes6c4,487$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2280%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0676…9db8backed Yes78c4,171$3,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,245.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c4,127$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.893283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…efbebacked Yes2c4,100$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9535…ac7abacked Yes62c4,000$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc71…e41ebacked No37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5201100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed No75c3,949$2,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.483036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No65c3,800$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3351741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed No14c3,400$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,910450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+489.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked No72c3,305$2,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.643548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes59c3,208$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.1180%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbabd…3d67backed Yes29c3,115$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.8140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5416…60eebacked Yes40c2,978$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b62…daccbacked No66c2,758$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…1404backed Yes40c2,499$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+307.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No78c2,426$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.843256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6797…ce12backed Yes62c2,400$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes29c2,239$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.82429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95c2…5a17backed Yes14c2,208$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f40…0571backed Yes63c2,200$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38620%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes9c2,073$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.722317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No64c2,028$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.6819543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf93…2fd7backed No64c1,860$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde63…46c2backed Yes35c1,820$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.11915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81f7…2dcabacked Yes63c1,800$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c1,676$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.772442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes14c1,610$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.523414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed Yes50c1,610$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.525330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb075…874bbacked Yes62c1,600$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb81f…a0f5backed Yes66c1,552$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x356a…bfeabacked Yes31c1,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4654531.1%14 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes2c1,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2e…220dbacked Yes17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25560%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,475$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.72333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x648a…b4a6backed Yes21c1,470$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd15…776cbacked Yes2c1,418$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked No64c1,415$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.1114335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf491…1cb7backed No41c1,400$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.81060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes35c1,358$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.082227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No68c1,356$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.736841.2%28 W · 40 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa394…89e9backed Yes51c1,327$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-78.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed No77c1,282$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.812147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b05…6180backed Yes15c1,254$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.751844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d2…b364backed No43c1,227$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a02…6d9ebacked No72c1,215$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No70c1,215$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.168344.6%37 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…72b1backed No40c1,200$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f48…f8ddbacked No77c1,200$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2763100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+91.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed Yes34c1,144$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.077657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f65…1679backed Yes57c1,111$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.271776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+34%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf164…b99cbacked Yes49c1,087$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.021936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977f…2306backed Yes16c1,070$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…cefdbacked Yes23c1,069$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No64c1,051$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.817948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes47c1,050$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.673250%16 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa27…3773backed No66c1,024$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb24e…c0bebacked No77c1,000$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.953938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22d…e387backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes11c999.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes8c934.34$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.751243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb64…3ffebacked No63c921.47$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.86933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked Yes35c900$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1cc…f7d4backed Yes26c899.99$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2343638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c08…bceabacked Yes17c883.15$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ba…be9fbacked Yes16c870.43$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.271450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a5…59a4backed No74c870$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.41030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes8c842.19$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.81343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffef…d7dbbacked No78c813.81$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.512326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe257…d60fbacked Yes53c807.21$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d27…5350backed Yes19c804.68$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503050%15 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No77c803.75$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.246654.5%36 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No69c801.23$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.117546.7%35 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes8c799.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e17…320dbacked Yes25c792.11$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0390%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d2d…23fcbacked No66c783.4$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198c…7328backed Yes38c783.36$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.2760%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0373…ff0dbacked No73c783.26$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.911283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+53.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c771.71$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.432541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4258…fcf8backed No48c759.62$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ea…1a3ebacked Yes56c740.42$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.