Token Launches · resolved market
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef77a305d9134cc687c647941f60928695c8eca7117a742aaa4a90494f51b9f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $485,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $529,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes | 5c | 24,510$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,543$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 7c | 19,843$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.33 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…6b9abacked Yes | 29c | 17,169$5,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 74c | 11,938$8,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.39 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…71b4backed Yes | 13c | 10,230$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…8d22backed Yes | 42c | 9,511$4,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,026.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 73c | 8,322$6,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…788ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,918$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…bbe1backed No | 34c | 7,398$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,907.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,329$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.55 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked No | 47c | 5,815$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,070.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…0937backed Yes | 37c | 5,572$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 72c | 5,283$3,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.85 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…24cabacked No | 37c | 5,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 62c | 4,827$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.51 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…9553backed Yes | 32c | 4,638$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 16c | 4,604$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.08 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…cfd9backed Yes | 6c | 4,487$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…9db8backed Yes | 78c | 4,171$3,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,245.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 4,127$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.89 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked Yes | 2c | 4,100$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9535…ac7abacked Yes | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…e41ebacked No | 37c | 4,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed No | 75c | 3,949$2,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 65c | 3,800$2,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…3d75backed No | 14c | 3,400$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +489.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked No | 72c | 3,305$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.64 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 59c | 3,208$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3d67backed Yes | 29c | 3,115$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…60eebacked Yes | 40c | 2,978$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…daccbacked No | 66c | 2,758$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…1404backed Yes | 40c | 2,499$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +307.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 78c | 2,426$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.84 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…ce12backed Yes | 62c | 2,400$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 29c | 2,239$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…5a17backed Yes | 14c | 2,208$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…0571backed Yes | 63c | 2,200$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 9c | 2,073$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.72 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 64c | 2,028$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.68 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 64c | 1,860$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 35c | 1,820$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f7…2dcabacked Yes | 63c | 1,800$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,676$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 14c | 1,610$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.52 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed Yes | 50c | 1,610$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.52 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb075…874bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,600$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81f…a0f5backed Yes | 66c | 1,552$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked Yes | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2e…220dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,475$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648a…b4a6backed Yes | 21c | 1,470$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…776cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,418$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 64c | 1,415$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.11 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf491…1cb7backed No | 41c | 1,400$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 35c | 1,358$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 68c | 1,356$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.73 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa394…89e9backed Yes | 51c | 1,327$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 77c | 1,282$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.81 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…6180backed Yes | 15c | 1,254$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…b364backed No | 43c | 1,227$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a02…6d9ebacked No | 72c | 1,215$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 70c | 1,215$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.16 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…72b1backed No | 40c | 1,200$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…f8ddbacked No | 77c | 1,200$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 34c | 1,144$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.07 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f65…1679backed Yes | 57c | 1,111$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.27 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…b99cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,087$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977f…2306backed Yes | 16c | 1,070$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…cefdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,069$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 1,051$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.8 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 47c | 1,050$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…3773backed No | 66c | 1,024$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked No | 77c | 1,000$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.95 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…e387backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 934.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…3ffebacked No | 63c | 921.47$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked Yes | 35c | 900$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…f7d4backed Yes | 26c | 899.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…bceabacked Yes | 17c | 883.15$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ba…be9fbacked Yes | 16c | 870.43$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…59a4backed No | 74c | 870$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 842.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 78c | 813.81$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.51 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe257…d60fbacked Yes | 53c | 807.21$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…5350backed Yes | 19c | 804.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 77c | 803.75$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.24 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 69c | 801.23$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.11 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 799.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…320dbacked Yes | 25c | 792.11$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…23fcbacked No | 66c | 783.4$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…7328backed Yes | 38c | 783.36$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked No | 73c | 783.26$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.91 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 771.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…fcf8backed No | 48c | 759.62$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…1a3ebacked Yes | 56c | 740.42$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?this page
- Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Opinion launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.