TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,698,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,954,574

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,698,311 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c104,124$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.42320%0 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89cf…ec79backed Yes5c66,930$3,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,626.87714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c59,999$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee6…5a96backed Yes4c42,773$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e6…3c2bbacked Yes7c36,897$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4581338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d40…09abbacked Yes2c33,254$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500195.3%1 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c33,129$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.82234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a0…2a73backed Yes1c31,021$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c30,240$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.361333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1087…013bbacked Yes3c29,951$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.923613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c49…97febacked Yes1c27,739$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c22,191$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.894754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde06…acfcbacked Yes2c21,211$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes2c20,858$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4045117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes3c20,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes4c19,799$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.5414019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8cf…8d9ebacked Yes4c19,129$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8112615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c16,982$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.66785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes4c16,935$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.831422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Yes3c16,342$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.99466.5%3 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-87.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc229…f6f9backed Yes3c12,970$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes2c12,831$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…1475backed Yes0c12,745$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9851…1320backed Yes1c12,738$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117220%0 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes2c12,315$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.573511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes5c11,746$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.791022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes3c11,400$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.53998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4232…4159backed Yes3c11,152$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300170%0 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c10,700$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa8…9658backed Yes5c10,338$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1683…de55backed Yes4c10,184$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e9…f300backed Yes1c10,180$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1be…3772backed Yes5c9,718$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.172412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ed…bb85backed Yes6c9,311$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.7660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafbb…9213backed Yes2c9,241$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1be9…a0d9backed Yes1c8,769$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784d…d27dbacked Yes8c8,442$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6662729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes2c8,349$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.242581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes3c7,854$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.49527.7%4 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes3c7,374$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.852683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5759…2d3fbacked Yes4c7,289$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.812326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes4c7,222$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.211822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+298.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes1c7,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed Yes0c6,769$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31620%0 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes6c6,766$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.13175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…0960backed Yes2c6,600$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75dc…239dbacked Yes6c6,309$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.391822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes7c6,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004422.7%10 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c5,564$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.431373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4bf…fcccbacked Yes3c5,520$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes4c5,250$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.692913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x487d…ca74backed Yes3c5,102$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes1c5,057$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.381792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes4c5,055$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.73861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1168…8d94backed Yes1c5,024$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.231010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes5c5,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.681915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa479…6a67backed Yes5c4,895$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-81.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f7…aedebacked Yes5c4,750$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.25812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-82.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…134dbacked Yes1c4,747$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes1c4,495$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.591672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bba…6f81backed Yes6c4,470$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes4c4,421$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes4c4,022$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.91147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…64aebacked Yes3c3,856$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.98300%0 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes5c3,671$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78b2…4346backed Yes0c3,600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c3,509$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.85590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c3,421$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.39985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c3,245$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.09185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89dd…ced7backed Yes3c3,229$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.81911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c3,166$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.16320%0 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes5c2,835$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7535123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes5c2,650$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.575425.9%14 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe49…27a9backed Yes2c2,600$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c88…9f1bbacked Yes4c2,484$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe766…8fa8backed Yes4c2,439$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100170%0 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1101…cb0cbacked Yes4c2,422$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-71.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e2…b8b5backed Yes5c2,342$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5849…a99ebacked Yes1c2,290$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.76150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b04…aca6backed Yes4c2,215$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7190%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224c…ee07backed Yes3c2,179$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703020%6 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+142.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ec7…2600backed Yes0c2,061$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes1c2,025$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.042910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes2c2,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbc…b858backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4571…f800backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec68…a36fbacked Yes6c2,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.23520%7 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2543…ce9bbacked Yes2c1,971$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.66160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…d300backed Yes6c1,932$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.532412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes1c1,929$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.65205%1 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick11cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43e0…46d1backed Yes3c1,884$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.662615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209d…43cebacked Yes6c1,863$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105180%0 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa006…47fbbacked Yes6c1,787$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x034e…f79dbacked Yes4c1,786$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793718.9%7 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+78.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa894…7607backed Yes2c1,771$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404112.2%5 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ace…dab4backed Yes3c1,768$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.971010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-77.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x083c…f78cbacked Yes4c1,698$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.04270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.