Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ca3efabff600267d69924a5280b7c1aa3f46cfc14590b28fa231c807253768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,698,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,954,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,698,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 104,124$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.42 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…ec79backed Yes | 5c | 66,930$3,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,626.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 59,999$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee6…5a96backed Yes | 4c | 42,773$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…3c2bbacked Yes | 7c | 36,897$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…09abbacked Yes | 2c | 33,254$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 33,129$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…2a73backed Yes | 1c | 31,021$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 1c | 30,240$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.36 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1087…013bbacked Yes | 3c | 29,951$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.92 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…97febacked Yes | 1c | 27,739$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 22,191$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.89 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…acfcbacked Yes | 2c | 21,211$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 2c | 20,858$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 4c | 19,799$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.54 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…8d9ebacked Yes | 4c | 19,129$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 16,982$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.6 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 4c | 16,935$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.83 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 3c | 16,342$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.99 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…f6f9backed Yes | 3c | 12,970$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 12,831$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…1475backed Yes | 0c | 12,745$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Yes | 1c | 12,738$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,315$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.57 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 5c | 11,746$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.79 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 11,400$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.5 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…4159backed Yes | 3c | 11,152$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 10,700$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…9658backed Yes | 5c | 10,338$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…de55backed Yes | 4c | 10,184$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e9…f300backed Yes | 1c | 10,180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…3772backed Yes | 5c | 9,718$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.17 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…bb85backed Yes | 6c | 9,311$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…9213backed Yes | 2c | 9,241$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…a0d9backed Yes | 1c | 8,769$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…d27dbacked Yes | 8c | 8,442$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 8,349$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.24 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 7,854$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 7,374$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.85 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5759…2d3fbacked Yes | 4c | 7,289$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.81 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…18e5backed Yes | 4c | 7,222$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.21 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +298.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,769$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 6c | 6,766$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.13 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…0960backed Yes | 2c | 6,600$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…239dbacked Yes | 6c | 6,309$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.39 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,564$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bf…fcccbacked Yes | 3c | 5,520$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,250$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…ca74backed Yes | 3c | 5,102$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 1c | 5,057$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 4c | 5,055$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.73 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1168…8d94backed Yes | 1c | 5,024$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…6a67backed Yes | 5c | 4,895$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…aedebacked Yes | 5c | 4,750$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…134dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,747$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,495$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…6f81backed Yes | 6c | 4,470$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,421$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 4c | 4,022$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 3c | 3,856$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 5c | 3,671$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.69 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…4346backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,509$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 3,421$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 3,245$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dd…ced7backed Yes | 3c | 3,229$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,166$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 5c | 2,835$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 5c | 2,650$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.57 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…27a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…9f1bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,484$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…8fa8backed Yes | 4c | 2,439$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1101…cb0cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,422$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…b8b5backed Yes | 5c | 2,342$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,290$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…aca6backed Yes | 4c | 2,215$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…ee07backed Yes | 3c | 2,179$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…2600backed Yes | 0c | 2,061$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes | 1c | 2,025$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…b858backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…f800backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…ce9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,971$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…d300backed Yes | 6c | 1,932$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 1c | 1,929$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…46d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,884$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…43cebacked Yes | 6c | 1,863$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa006…47fbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,787$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,786$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 2c | 1,771$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ace…dab4backed Yes | 3c | 1,768$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…f78cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,698$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.