Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5beb360b7a59e4eee90c31834a5bda13514bb74d2419df8ca41c49e26d9aa90c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,808,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,473,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,808,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6faf…4581backed Yes | 1c | 212,886$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes | 0c | 128,185$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…fb37backed Yes | 0c | 105,249$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd319…07edbacked Yes | 1c | 46,657$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 41,222$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 39,999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 1c | 35,181$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.64 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 1c | 32,264$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 22,938$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb101…2075backed Yes | 0c | 20,197$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3284…c689backed Yes | 1c | 19,135$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…ffaabacked Yes | 1c | 16,177$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 0c | 15,894$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…981dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,555$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 13,616$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ee…2c4ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,588$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,037$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cb…8de0backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 11,587$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…b736backed Yes | 1c | 11,547$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1a…0dddbacked Yes | 1c | 10,220$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…908fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,700$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…d8a3backed Yes | 1c | 9,606$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b73…17d2backed Yes | 1c | 8,977$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…cc1ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9638…3657backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba91…8fedbacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…f084backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 1c | 5,924$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…a08abacked Yes | 0c | 5,801$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,497$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…d300backed Yes | 1c | 5,469$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 1c | 5,155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,143$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce90…d285backed Yes | 0c | 5,139$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…050ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,108$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…a125backed Yes | 1c | 4,360$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…f74dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf613…5722backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes | 1c | 3,972$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 0c | 3,707$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 3,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519c…cbd2backed Yes | 1c | 3,434$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…c9ddbacked Yes | 1c | 3,424$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…575ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…0144backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…dfd9backed Yes | 1c | 2,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…3579backed Yes | 1c | 2,773$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…240cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,512$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…bc5bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,465$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 2,424$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…5e78backed Yes | 1c | 2,387$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,374$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386b…e355backed Yes | 1c | 2,210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…4b7abacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…65a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a77…71cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,012$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…2071backed Yes | 1c | 2,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735e…63aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,996$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb28…ad8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,929$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…5f56backed Yes | 1c | 1,693$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625e…76e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,643$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,435$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,292$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 1,283$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…136fbacked Yes | 1c | 717.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.